In this context it seems appropriate to look ahead and in particular to the time after the upcoming presidential elections in France.
The question at stake is whether Thursday’s vote is a true reflection of the will of the French people or merely a party political maneuver to garner additional support come April 22 next year, the day that marks the first trip to the ballot box of what is expected to be a two-round election process terminating on May 6.
In an inter-connected world, policy proposals by elected members of a national parliament as well as a president or prime minister more often than not impact both domestic as well as foreign issues. The understandably angry reactions by Ankara after Paris’ vote were hence to be expected. One could thus argue that by knowing about the anticipated outcome(s) -- i.e., that the vote will most likely go through as well as about how Turkey is going to react -- a considerable number of French politicians quite happily played with the future of Turkish-French relations; actually, they put them in their entirety at risk. A classic case of cause and effect!
What amazes me is how a sizeable segment of France’s political class without even raising so much as an eyebrow apparently appreciates (or at least tolerates) that the temperature of Franco-Turkish relations will drop well below zero. One is then forgiven to ask whether Paris ever took Turkey seriously!
The Turkish public knows only too well that President Nicolas Sarkozy prefers to keep Turkey outside the European Union’s inner circle and promotes a privileged partnership instead. Now political commentators can add another topic to the list of “anti-Turkey” items emanating from the Elysée Palace. But are these two issues and how they are at present handled by Paris a correct image of how the French electorate evaluates Turkish-French affairs? And what is the viewpoint of the Socialist Party (and to a lesser extent of Marine Le Pen) with regards to both subjects?
From the far right one would not necessarily expect an “all-inclusive” approach towards French or EU policy making for that matter, and Turkey’s EU accession will not feature too prominently on that party’s agenda. Much more relevant is thus François Hollande and his Parti Socialiste (PS) and how they see things.
Not every member of the PS thinks along the lines of Michel Rocard, who years ago openly defended Turkey’s EU accession. Many members of the still rather vociferous French trade unions are afraid that French jobs would be lost to new arrivals. Others may wish to see a more social-oriented EU and less of a free market organization, which could initially harm Turkey’s credentials as a liberal, economic success story.
On the one hand, the presidential elections are still some time off, and on the other hand it is by no means certain whether the French upper house, the senate, will approve the genocide bill in its current format, too, so Ankara may perhaps wish to closely examine the future political manifesto of PS frontrunner Hollande. Although Turkey’s governing Justice and Development Party (AK Party) most definitely can be regarded as a mainstream conservative party instead of leaning towards socialist values, it may become a winning formula for Turkey to have a network of a few leading personalities scattered across Europe who belong to the political left (think Tony Blair, remember Gerhard Schröder) but vehemently defend Turkey’s EU membership. If current French public opinion polls are anything to go by, a future French president from the ranks of a by now “moderate” socialist and almost social democrat political party who over the coming months could take Turkey and its EU vocation on board might just become a perfect ally. In that case even the genocide bill could be withdrawn should it ever pass the second legislative hurdle.
Ankara was right to have reacted the way it did. Silently watching from the stands neither serves Turkey’s interests nor would the electorate accept it. But without unduly meddling in another country’s affairs, we should all look ahead until after the date of the French presidential elections. Perhaps the French electorate is up for a change?
