Not surprisingly questions about the protests following the elections, which were branded fraudulent, topped the list. Principally in Moscow and St. Petersburg they have drawn crowds of over 60,000. Putin tried to turn the protests into something positive for himself, declaring them as a result of the democratic “Putin regime” that allowed people to freely express themselves; that his party’s loss of seats in the Duma demonstrated how free the elections had been. He also chatted about foreign policy and international politics, being particularly critical of Western disapproval. Having already struck out at the US, blaming Washington for encouraging opposition protests following US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s criticism of the elections as neither free nor fair, he accused the US of trying to play the role of the “international gendarme.”
While Putin is continuing with his tough guy act, there can be no doubt he has been shaken by these protests being the biggest in his 12-year rule. Ordinary Russians I spoke to in Moscow are fed up. Particularly aggrieved is Russia’s growing middle class, which has no say or influence in a political system that is dominated by Putin and his cronies. For me, Moscow felt bitter. People walk the streets dressed in black with sad, listless faces -- a stagnating people. Indeed, a recent report from the European Council on Foreign Relations concluded that while Russia is not in steep decline, it is stagnating, with widespread corruption, a dysfunctional government and growing dissatisfaction with the ruling elite. Without drastic improvements in the way it is governed, it clearly cannot keep pace with the dynamism and the growth prospects of emerging powers such as India and China. The report’s authors describe this as “Brezhnevization.”
A new protest is planned for Dec. 24 and is expected to draw tens of thousands of people. Security is on red alert and in Red Square a conveniently placed ice skating rink prevents protesters from gathering there. However, while there has been a call for a re-run of the Dec. 4 elections, this seems highly unlikely.
Along with turbulence in the streets, Putin may also find himself facing turbulence in the usually “rubber-stamp” Duma. With the pro-Kremlin United Russia having slipped to under 50 percent, this means it has 238 seats, or 52.9 percent, of the 450-member Duma. Theoretically, with its loss of a two-thirds majority, United Russia will no longer be able to change the constitution unilaterally. Furthermore, for the ratification of key international documents, such as the recently agreed World Trade Organization (WTO) membership, it will require support from other parties. While parliament is set to reconvene today (Dec. 21), it is unlikely to take up WTO ratification procedures until after the March presidential election. With two of the four main political parties in parliament -- the Communist Party and A Just Russia –- opposing WTO membership, a tough fight may lie ahead.
Meanwhile, billionaire tycoon Mikhail Prokhorov has declared his intention to run for president. However, there has been a lot of speculation as to whether Prokhorov’s candidacy is genuine or whether it is just a devious Kremlin ruse. Prokhorov, unlike a number of other oligarchs who are wallowing in exile, has played a careful game in his relations with the Kremlin and has managed some degree of independence. Nevertheless, he has been involved with the ruling elites, just last week blogging his support for Putin, declaring that whether Russians liked it or not, Putin was the only guy able to manage the Russian machine. Nevertheless, if this is not the case, it is possible that Prokhorov may be able to muster quite a lot of support, particularly from the growing middle class.
Still, according to polls Putin remains ahead of the pack in the run up to the March presidential elections, with 42 percent of respondents saying that they would vote for him. Of course, unless Putin manages to pass 50 percent, he will have to go into a second round.
Russian politics has shifted from being entirely predicable into a period of uncertainty. Because Russia’s opposition is notoriously fractured and pretty much leaderless, for some, a Russia without Putin is as scary as a Russia with Putin. Nevertheless, a change has begun and while the road ahead remains unclear, at least Russian society, known for its previous passivity, is waking up and beginning to demand an end to so-called managed democracy.
