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May 26, 2012
 
 
 
 
 
 
Columnists 16 December 2011, Friday 0 0 0 0
KLAUS JURGENS
klaus.jurgens@gmail.com

Unemployment statistics: more than number crunching!

Let me entice you into reading a contribution which might otherwise be misconstrued as featuring too many “dry” data by more casually mentioning another type of “numbers” first: A widely watched and annually repeated international song contest has been made even more (in)famous thanks to those more critical (some would say sarcastic) members of the television audience who enjoy poking fun at it by unfairly aiming at downplaying the event’s relevance.

When talking about announcing the winner they would utter the words “Country ABC, 12 points,” ideally in a parody of an English speaker using an overly accentuated French pronunciation. This refers to their (right or wrong) impression of winners of this prize not always scoring the highest amount of points due to the music-related quality of their entries but by “politically motivated voting.” I am sure you know by now which contest I am writing about!

I am in no position to judge over the merits of any such entries of a musical nature originating in either this or that charming European country or any other for that matter -- and yes I do admit I happen to watch the program myself -- but what I can comment on are a different set of (European) numbers counted regularly, and most definitely being of a much more elevated importance: I am talking about Europe’s most recent unemployment figures and in particular when compared with Turkey’s very own statistics. In this regard one might want to say “Europe 9.7 points” and “Turkey 8.8 points,” but unlike the abovementioned song contest, in reality those who score the least fare best.

Here I insert the above pre-announced “dry” paragraph containing mostly numbers. Turkey’s unemployment rate for September of this year stood at a remarkable 8.8 percent, recorded as a 10-year low.

Putting these data into a wider European perspective and as announced by Eurostat unemployment in the 17-member eurozone (same month) rested at 10.2 percent, and measured EU = 27 wide at 9.7 percent, respectively. Whereas Austria tops the rankings with a rate of 4.1 percent, Spain is found at the bottom of the statistics with an unemployment rate of 22.8 percent. Let us not forget that these numbers are often higher in reality as many people fall through the net of nationwide statistics (those who do not claim benefits, those who voluntarily stay at home) but one has to make do with these officially announced data anyways.

Putting these data into a wider picture and what is truly comforting to realize is that Turkey, which already today belongs to the upper half of countries with regards to employment data even without being a member of either the EU or eurozone, has managed its economy extremely well and is on the right track to continue to do just that.

People vote with their wallets. Young people vote by judging their future career prospects. Retired people vote according to their state (and privately supported additional) -- pensions!

The employment rate is important not just from an individual’s perspective but underlines that Ankara knows how to steer an economy through (globally) troubled financial waters. Turkey is intertwined with the world’s economy and a credit crisis in one country or a bailout for another impacts those nations businesses’ willingness to buy goods from Turkey or to continue to invest in it.

It shows as well that Turkish business has become a close ally of the current government, because otherwise business would not continue to hire. If this very welcome trend continues, the rate of unemployment might as well fall further. One type of Turkish company in particular could become the backbone for this development -- Turkey’s small and medium-sized enterprises (SME). If profit margin outlooks are good and access to SME adjusted credit lines is made easier, many of Turkey’s future jobs will be based at SMEs, which in turn influences economic well being in all of Turkey’s 81 provinces, not just the three metropolises.

Aiming at an unemployment rate below the 5 percent level could well become an economic benchmark for the next decade. If domestic growth, partly fuelled by increased foreign direct investment (FDI), continues Turkey would have set an example of how a strong domestic economy can weather an external crisis or two. Eurozone members may one day wish to take note of this!

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