With the possible exception of Iceland, it may be some time until another country makes it into the EU. While, as we know, Turkey's membership process is to all intents and purposes frozen, the other counties in the Western Balkans -- a region whose geography has made it prey to big powers for centuries -- also continue to struggle. For some, it is due to a lack of effort on their side, but for others there is a feeling that the EU is moving the goal posts and toughening the entry requirements.
Serbia has been disappointed by the EU as Belgrade expected to receive candidate country status this month. Belgrade seemed under the impression that delivering indicted war criminals Ratko Mladic and Goran Hadzic to the International Criminal Tribunal in The Hague would suffice to grant Serbia candidate country status and there would be no further preconditions. However, the EU-27 were unable to reach a unanimous agreement. While the EU cannot make recognition of Kosovo a precondition, given that several of its own member states do not recognize Kosovo, some member states, including Belgium, Germany and Denmark, are demanding that Belgrade make more efforts in implementing agreements reached in talks between Pristina and Belgrade for normalizing relations, including calling for the implementation of a deal between the two to jointly manage border crossings under the supervision of EU officials. This follows unrest in north Kosovo last month, in which some 50 NATO peacekeepers were hurt along with numerous civilians. The peacekeepers were injured while trying to dismantle barricades erected by northern Kosovo's majority ethnic Serbs, who refused to recognize border guards and customs officials sent by the ethnic Albanian government in Pristina.
While the EU is to reassess the situation in February, this was the first time that the European Council rejected a positive recommendation of the commission to grant candidacy to a country. As a consequence political instability has returned to Serbia, with questions over concessions made to Pristina returning to the political discourse. While a few days ago the Serbs agreed to allow Kosovar Albanian police and customs officers to man the contested border points, the main opposition party, the far-right Serbian Progressive Party, has requested the government resign while the nationalist opposition has accused Serbia's leadership of giving up on Kosovo for false EU hopes, with the outcome of the crucial May parliamentary elections now very unclear.
There is not much joy elsewhere in the Western Balkans either. Candidate country Montenegro failed to obtain a date for beginning accession talks with the EU, demanding greater efforts in fighting organized crime and corruption as well as greater independence of the judiciary. However, if sufficient steps are made between now and June 2012, then the EU is likely to give the green light. Macedonia is still grounded due to its “name issue,” with Greece maintaining its veto. This stagnating has resulted in Macedonia backtracking on a number of areas, including media freedoms. However, the ruling last week by the International Court of Justice against Greece's objections to Macedonia's NATO membership may be a game changer. Meanwhile, Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina just seem to be treading water and making little progress, if any at all. This just goes to show that even with a concrete membership perspective -- something that all the countries in the Western Balkans have -- often leaderships simply cannot find enough will to drive forward reform processes, particularly when there is a feeling the EU itself if not offering sufficient political support.
These days no country is getting an “easy ride,” with the road to the EU becoming more challenging. This is partially a consequence of the current malaise that is consuming the EU. In an EU plunged into an existential crisis by the financial and sovereign debt disasters, there is little appetite in capitals for enlarging the union beyond the 28 countries. Second is the legacy of the membership of Bulgaria and Romania. Both countries were ill-prepared to join the EU in 2007, but because former French President Jacques Chirac twisted the arms of his colleagues in the EU, both countries were given a concrete date for accession. This will never happen again and as a result the EU has become more rigorous in what it expects from would-be candidates. This means higher levels of governance, better rule of law, cracking down on corruption, free media and respect for minorities, etc., in order to make progress.
