Assad is the only leader who can keep Syria intact and is a leader who has been reforming since taking office. The doctor further claimed that 85 percent of Syrians support Assad, that the president will not go anywhere, and that we will all see this.
One could argue that the doctor I spoke with was a friend of Assad and that you would expect him to support his friend. But what if he is right? What if Turks and the rest of the world have misread the developments in Syria?
When we look at the facts, we should admit that there are some advantages to Assad remaining in power. First, he is the only person in the Syrian political system who seems able to run the country and to unite the people. His Sunni wife, his alliance with Sunni business circles in major metropolitan cities and, more importantly, the sizable Christian communities supporting him and not the opposition groups at least give him a huge advantageous when it comes to remaining in power.
Second, many of us read the developments in Syria through the lens of countries that faced the Arab Spring and whose dictators could not remain in power. So we expect a similar pattern in Syria as well. When we look at the each individual case, however, there are important distinctions between each country.
For Tunisia, economic hardship and the secularist tyranny of the Ben Ali regime was the main reason. Zine El Abidine Ben Ali had already become disconnected from his own people and therefore lost.
In Egypt, Hosni Mubarak’s opponents were well trained, well organized and knew what to do from the very beginning. Furthermore, the Mubarak regime had lost control of the impact of globalization, which opened his people to the world. But Mubarak could not anticipate how much Egyptians had engaged with the rest of the world and what this would bring to Egypt in the event of a revolution. Additionally, Mubarak was trying to install his son Gamal as successor, a move that created some degree of fuss years before the revolution took place. Therefore, the Egyptian revolution meant resisting not only Hosni Mubarak but also the possibility of another 40 years of the Mubarak regime.
For Libya, the main motivation that brought about its revolution were entrenched tribal disputes that helped the opposition groups push for their demands. The Libyan opposition managed to derive some support from the West, giving it the upper hand in its fight against supporters of Muammar Gaddafi. Therefore, when it comes to the question of Libya, it is not clear whether it was a popular public revolution or a tribal conflict.
Syria appears to be a case very different from the three examples we have seen thus far. First, opposition groups in Syria are coming from rather distanced, rural areas, while major metropolitan centers either support Assad or are neutral toward both sides. In addition, unlike the Mubarak regime, Assad has indeed been trying to reform his system. It is a very slow process but the perception of people in Syria is positive toward Assad. More importantly, the Christian minority is not supporting the opposition groups, who are a key group that would influence the Western public opinion. The doctor I spoke with, for instance, accuses the opposition groups of being fundamentalists who would not respect minority rights in the country if they come to power. The situation is not as easy as other opposition groups, including Egyptian Islamists, who did not stand against the demonstrations at Tahrir Square against the Mubarak regime, in order to receive Western support.
Further, the period of transition in the Arab Spring countries proved that the Islamists are coming to power, which made the West nervous. Israel especially is very concerned with the election victory of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. This means it is likely that Israel and the West will be hesitant about supporting opposition groups in Syria.
Taking into consideration all of these facts, one needs to admit that there is still a slimmer of hope for the Assad regime to remain in power if Assad agrees to adopt quick reforms and guarantees that he will not prosecute anyone in the opposition groups. The question now is, what will happen to Turkish-Syrian relations if the Assad regime remains in power?
