Turkey’s ambassador to Iraq since 2009, Murat Özçelik, will assume the post in the coming days -- a post that has been vacant since the former undersecretary, Governor Muammer Güler, became a deputy for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) in the June 12 elections. Özçelik served as Turkey’s Special Envoy to Iraq before he was appointed as Turkey’s ambassador to the same neighboring country. As per a decree issued in mid October, he returned home.
Özçelik also led a Turkish team of negotiators in talks with Kurdish officials in northern Iraqi in his capacity as a special envoy in order to find ways in which the activities of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) terrorists in the region could be curbed. PKK terrorists have long been based in northern Iraq and infiltrate Turkey through the Turkish-Iraqi border, which is difficult to patrol, in order to stage violent attacks against both security officials and civilian targets.
The positions that Özçelik held previously have given him a considerable experience in relations with both Iraq and Iraqi Kurds as well as with the US, the forces of which are planned to be withdrawn from Iraq next month.
Turkey’s choice to appoint a diplomat having extensive experience, including experience in terrorism issues, instead of a governor as the new undersecretary of the KDGM is a strong clue that Turkey will increasingly focus on northern Iraq in its accelerated fight against the PKK under a recently adopted strategy.
According to a source with Turkish intelligence, their ultimate strategy is to destroy the main PKK stronghold in the Kandil mountains in northern Iraq, close to the Iranian border.
Turkey’s newly introduced strategy is based on the political authority, i.e. the elected government, taking full control of the fight against terrorism, which had been previously guided by the Turkish military’s unquestionable authority. This former strategy resulted in the prolonging of the fight against the PKK, now going on for almost 30 years, while claiming the lives of around 50,000 people.
The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) have increasingly come under public pressure to dispatch professional soldiers to the conflict regions instead of using untrained conscripts. Security flaws on the part of the TSK have been another point of serious criticism that has been leveled against the military in its fight against the PKK.
Under the new strategy, Turkey has already begun dispatching special police forces to the predominantly Kurdish southeastern parts of Turkey. The special forces have thus far been fighting against the PKK alongside the military.
This new strategy is reported to have begun yielding positive results. For example, a PKK base was destroyed in Kazan Valley in the southeastern township of Çukurca. Pro-PKK news agencies’ reports on the loss of senior PKK members further indicate the Turkish success in this recent operation.
While intensifying the military crackdown on the PKK inside the country, Turkish decision-makers express their resolve in finishing the PKK in northern Iraq.
To end the PKK’s existence in northern Iraq, there needs to be close cooperation among Turkey, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), the Iraqi central government and the US. The US is expected to continue supplying real-time intelligence to Turkey after its withdrawal from Iraq that is critical in pin-pointing PKK activities in northern Iraq.
Massoud Barzani, President of the KRG, visited Turkey last week upon invitation by the Turkish government. However, he ruled out the possibility of his Peshmergas fighting against the PKK in northern Iraq alongside Turkish troops.
However, parallel to the improved economic and political ties with Turkey, Barzani has already changed his negative stance towards Ankara and has begun condemning PKK violence while urging for a peaceful solution to the Kurdish question. Despite public statements that he would not allow his Peshmergas to take part in any Turkish operation against the PKK inside northern Iraq, his close aides told me recently that those Kurdish forces have been closing their eyes to the Turkish military crackdown on the PKK as long as civilians are not targeted.
According to a Turkish intelligence official, Barzani prefers to remain neutral in the Turkish-PKK conflict.
Meanwhile, Turkish success in its military operations will be measured by the extent to which the state gains psychological superiority over the PKK.
Any democratic reforms implemented while the state cannot gain superiority over the PKK in its intensified armed conflict will not succeed. This is because the PKK will label the implementation of reforms in the midst of the fight against its terrorists as a concession by the Turkish state, claims a Turkish intelligence source.
Turkish military success under the new strategy will be important in the creation of a positive climate, so that it can introduce major reforms for the Kurdish people that will include language and legal measures, the same source believes. However, the same source stated that Kurdish reforms are only possible in the medium term, not in the short term.
Still, I have doubts about the success of Turkish military operations if democratic reforms are going to be delayed rather than implemented in conjunction with these operations because the military crackdown on the PKK has increasingly been agitating Turkey’s Kurds.
