Iran has been a strategic rival of Turkey in the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central Asia rather than a partner. The incompatibility of their regimes and political ambitions in the spheres they aspire to influence has caused relations to cool except perhaps mutual economic concerns.
The Kurdistan Workers’ Party’s (PKK) presence in Iraq is disturbing, but so far Baghdad along with Arbil have been reluctant to cooperate in ousting this armed outfit from their territory. Relations with Syria have soured because of the genocidal treatment of the government against dissidents of the regime who are demanding democratic reforms. Cyprus has always been a thorn in the side of Turkey. But now Greece is supporting the Greek Cypriot government in its endeavor to drill for oil and gas in the eastern Mediterranean together with Israel. Turkey’s contentious relations with Israel, a one-time ally, leave little room for words.
On Dec. 17, 2010, the Greek Cypriot and Israeli governments signed an agreement on the delimitation of the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) between Cyprus and Israel. The initiative was immediately endorsed by the European Union and the United States. The Greek Cypriot government also came to an agreement on the delimitation of the EEZ with Egypt, Lebanon and Syria. Gas reserves are reported to have been explored off both the Haifa coastline close to Israel and off the coastline of Cyprus.
The cooperation between Greek Cypriots and Israelis has upset the Turkish government on two grounds: 1. The island is a bi-zonal, bi-communal entity and the interests of the Turkish community are not heeded. Any deal should have involved the Turkish Cypriots, too. 2. There is a legal and actual uncertainty dividing and demarcating the continental shelf and economic zones in the east Mediterranean. Some of the zones that are planned to be exploited are overlapping. Before any attempt can be made to explore the seabed riches, a consensus among riparian countries must be reached.
To emphasize its wish to be either a partner or to abort the initiative, the incumbent Turkish government declared that it would send its navy to protect its national interests in the region. Greece’s reaction was coupled by the Russians, who declared their support of Greek interests. Russians will soon send an aircraft carrier to the same region.
If the Russians step in, would there be a countervailing power to contain the escalation? Since the end of the Cold War, an American presence in the eastern Mediterranean has been scarce. This means Turkey may find itself alone.
So far information indicates that the resources discovered by the parties of the bilateral EEZ are rather plentiful off the coast of Cyprus. Similarly it is reported that the US-Israeli energy consortium has made an equally big discovery off of Israel’s coast. Naturally Europe is excited together with the Greek Cypriots and Greece because the continent is hungry for new energy supplies and suffers from dependence on Russian gas.
However, Turkey’s concern is not only about being “left out.” The Turkish government aspires to establish the country as a dependable regional hub between oil and gas producers in Asia and consuming countries in Europe and the Near East. Given this aspiration, Turkey’s strategy could be upset if and when the Cyprus and Israeli reserves are developed.
Furthermore, Turkey’s wish to be an international actor can only be fulfilled if it becomes a regional power. Its recent appeal to the Arab world is a part of such a strategy. This has put Turkey into a confrontational position with Israel and Iran. Israel is a nuclear power; Iran is close to it (2015). This may urge Turkey to seek nuclear capacity if it is threatened by either or both countries. Doing so, some may believe, will enhance Turkey’s dominant role in the region.
Of course these are all hypothetical. If Turkey treads this road and seeks confrontation rather than cooperation in the Middle East, would its alliance with the US and its membership bid with the EU be lasting?
I am sure Turkey’s leaders have plausible answers to these questions when they declare that they may send the navy to back up their statements. Do other countries have navies, too?
