To be honest, there are no bolts from the blue. For all those who have followed developments in Turkey and between Turkey and the EU in the last 12 months, the compiled list of positives and negatives should not come as a surprise. As most Turks, the EC is happy with the improved civilian oversight of the armed forces and the progress that has been made in strengthening the independence and impartiality of the judiciary as a result of the adoption of the September 2010 constitutional amendments. The Ergenekon investigation, despite heavy lobbying from anti-Justice and Development Party (AK Party) circles, is still described as an opportunity for Turkey to shed light on alleged criminal activities against democracy. On the other hand, it was to be expected that the EC is worried about the lack of progress, or sometimes even regress, on some other issues. There is strong criticism in the report on the extremely long pre-trial detention periods and the length of time it takes to complete a court case. Instead of diminishing, violence against women -- including killings -- is increasing, underlining the growing gap between a legal framework guaranteeing women’s rights and gender equality on the one hand and social and economic reality on the other. Finally, the EC raises serious concerns about the high number of violations of freedom of expression and the unchanged, highly problematic criminal legislation that is open to abuse by different prosecutors and causes widespread self-censorship in the Turkish media.
As in previous years, everybody can pick and choose from the long list of subjects that are covered by the report and either conclude that the report is balanced, as I would, or concentrate on some omissions or disputed judgments and dismiss the report as biased or one-sided.
The interesting thing about the report, though, is not the appreciation of all its details. I am curious to see how the government and other stakeholders will use this year’s edition to position themselves in the Turkish debate on future EU membership.
I am sure some will use the 2011 EC assessment to put all the blame on the EU. They will scold Europe for being insincere, will underline all the mistakes made by the EU itself and conclude that Turkey does not need to take the critical remarks from Brussels very seriously. These are mainly the ones in Turkey who were always skeptical about EU membership plus the growing number of Turks who are frustrated with the lack of progress in Turkey’s EU accession talks and the anti-Turkey rhetoric from French President Sarkozy and others. Although I understand their disappointment and anger, I would humbly advise the responsible Turkish authorities to follow another line of response.
Everybody knows that at the moment bashing the EU goes down quite well in Turkey. So I would not be surprised if, as a reaction to the report, we will see some harsh words by the prime minister on the EU and, for instance, its failings in the Cyprus issue. He will play with the popular sentiment that wonders why Turkey should put a lot of energy in trying to join a union in crisis while at the same time the Arab world is welcoming Turks and their model of society with open arms. But when the ruling party is really willing to keep the long-term interests of Turkey in mind, they should not give in to the present mood of cynicism about the EU. They should realize that finding ways to keep the accession process alive will also benefit Turkey. The same EC that has compiled the progress report is willing to go the extra mile to soften the existing rigid visa regime. Turkish Minister for EU Affairs Egemen Bağış has understood the advantages for ordinary Turks and has reacted positively. The same applies to EU plans to cooperate more closely with Turkey on the Balkans and North Africa. Better to look for solutions where both would profit than to turn Turkey’s back on the EU. Nothing good will come out of that, and the government knows it, maybe even better than they are able to admit.
