Although Mr. Medvedev offered a generous reason by saying Mr. Putin is more popular than him and that this is why he will not run for the presidency again -- which means he will go back to the Prime Ministry -- this rationale was not met with acceptance at the non-institutionalized opposition centers: the Russian blogosphere. The middle class, which is better educated and better paid than the rest of society, is less enthusiastic about the decision. It wants more freedom and an open society. The decision turned into black humor when an official from the President's Office said that Mr. Medvedev may return to the presidency in 2024 to “finish his reforms.” People started to ask whether Mr. Putin will succeed him as president for the third time.
Mr. Putin is not affected by formal and informal opposition. He is adamant in ruling and shaping Russia. At the Russia Calling Investment Forum two weeks ago he bluntly explained why he wanted to come back to the presidency: to avoid disruptive change and guarantee political stability. He made it obvious that he was unhappy about the likelihood of too much change. This is almost a promise of authoritarianism and a one-man rule.
Will Russia become a country where presidents stay in power for life? Who knows, but Mr. Putin was there to propose a new deal that would excite Russians who were eager to compensate for the loss of their empire two decades ago. Prime Minister Putin has proposed forming a “Eurasian Union” of former Soviet nations. He added that the bloc could become a major global player competing with the United States, the European Union and Asia. Most of his partners in this deal would be lifetime presidents, such as Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon and the president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko.
It is a well known fact that Mr. Putin has always lamented the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. He called it the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.” Yet he rejects the idea that his new proposal is not an attempt to rebuild the Soviet Empire. He knows that the Soviet Empire was not a dynamic force, otherwise it would have survived. He wants a more contemporary force that does not just rely on military might. He seeks to build a new pole “of the modern world, serving as an efficient link between Europe and the dynamic Asia-Pacific region.” Last summer, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan declared that they had formed an economic alliance and removed customs barriers to allow free trade amongst them. With the beginning of 2012 they will introduce unified market rules and regulations. It was also announced that Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will soon join the alliance.
Mr. Putin has often been accused of chopping away Russia's post-Soviet democratic gains during his 2000-2008 presidency. The question is whether the new “alliance” will be an instrument of hegemony of lifetime presidents and authoritarian politics that could freeze the coming of the spring in other countries that are just coming out of a decades-long authoritarian freeze. I hope Mr. Putin's “Eurasian Union” serves as a balancing agent in a skewed world order, and does not constitute another anti-democratic and contentious center that enhances conflict rather than peace and stability.
