The 21st century will be marked not by a clash of social or religious values or by overpopulation, but by overconsumption, especially of food. Overeating has been pointed out as the main reason for the coming crisis.
Globalization has helped a part of the world’s population to prosper and spend more. However, more wealth has not necessarily brought better resource utilization or health. Overeating and overconsumption have begun to put to a lot of stress on natural and financial resources. Considering that the world’s population is 7 billion, a lot of what is produced and consumed today may be unsustainable in the near future.
The first thing people do when their incomes rise is to consume more food. East Asia, especially China, is exhibiting high rates of development, just as many countries in the southern hemisphere. Their people are increasingly adopting a Western-style diet. Experts warn us about future “resource wars.” Secondly, many Western-style diets that mostly consist of fast food are unhealthy. It raises costs associated with healthcare and increases the demand for it. Hence, the first clash is likely to emerge between societies with healthy and unhealthy diets and the economies bent on adopting these styles. Although people are free to choose what and how much they eat/consume, this free market behavior will create a sustainability problem. People obviously have the right to consume in excess, but they also have the responsibility to accept the result and the cost of their choices. Just like higher taxes are imposed on tobacco and alcohol, we may soon see a “deterrence tax” on fatty cheeseburgers, salty potato and taco chips, soft drinks with no nutritious value and packaged junk food because these create “lifestyle diseases” like diabetes, heart, respiratory problems and cancer.
It is not only because of health issues that Western-style “hollow” foods and beverages will be the target of criticism and higher taxation. The volume of their consumption also needs to be reduced; otherwise, the rising worldwide demand for these items will put an increasing strain on the supplies of natural materials that are needed for their production.
The ozone hole is growing. Global warming is increasing. Conditions are becoming more adverse for agricultural production. But as the populations of many countries are swelling, so is their need for more food. Hence “food security” is getting to be a serious concern worldwide.
If food security becomes an increasing and integral part or larger part of national security, it may become a basic reason for a clash of national interests. The security and stability of regimes may increasingly be premised on food security. Cognizant of this fact, many Asian and Middle Eastern nations are busy leasing or buying up farmland overseas.
One has to remember that in Egypt, the price of bread and beans, two staple foodstuffs subsidized by the Egyptian government, doubled. All hell broke loose and Egyptians took to the streets. Threatened by this outrage, the government reverted to the subsidized prices. Comments have been made about the fact that the Arab Spring was preceded by rapidly rising prices of basic foodstuffs in recent years. So more concerned governments, especially of developing countries, will be more attentive to the diet of their people, the income of whom is increasing.
The World Health Organization has warned that “globesity,” or global obesity, ranks among the top negative global factors besides tobacco use and AIDS. About one-quarter of the world is overweight, but most of the obese are in the West and most of those that are insufficiently fed are in the East and South. With strained natural resources and unequal income, a clash over food may be a sooner calamity than a clash over cultural values.
