Young, innocent people are dying simply because they were in the wrong place at the wrong time. The government is under pressure to react and gives the green light to army operations in Turkey and across the border. Harsh language is spoken; feelings of hatred and disgust between different ethnic groups are fueled.
One of the most striking characteristics of apparently unsolvable conflicts is that all informed and unbiased persons involved know more or less what the solution should look like. In the case of the Kurdish problem, everybody is fully aware that the future of the Turkish Kurds lies inside a more democratic Turkey, that one day the Kurdish language will be used in education in parts of Turkey, that Turkey needs to decentralize its administration and that at the end of the day most regular PKK members will have to be reintegrated into society. Again, the difficulty is not the solution; the big stumbling block is how to get there. Especially when each time the parties seem to be close to a deal, hard-liners on either side do their utmost to destroy the compromise within reach. Are we about to enter another of these vicious cycles? Or is there cause to be more optimistic this time around?
I think we could see a different scenario unfold in the foreseeable future because, compared to the past, two crucial things have changed. Let me be more cautious: They seem to have changed.
One is the strong and publicly expressed opposition among Kurds to the recent PKK attacks, particularly the ones that killed civilians -- Turks and Kurds -- in Ankara, Siirt and Batman. A growing number of Kurds are calling on the PKK to stop these assaults. “Don't kill on my behalf” is their powerful slogan, and it has put the diehards on the defense. The crucial change is that the present opposition comes from within the ranks of the Kurdish nationalist movement, not from outsiders without any influence. Mayors and other elected politicians have said they are not willing to accept these kinds of atrocities any longer. These are the same people who are pushing the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) to take their seats in Parliament and fight for results in the political arena. Many BDP parliamentarians have declared their willingness to make politics in Ankara. When you read this column, it will be known whether they were able to convince the rest of their colleagues.
My guess is that the BDP will enter Parliament on Oct. 1. That is a precondition for the second important change to be effective.
After his trip to New York, Prime Minister Erdoğan gave a statement on the new strategy of the government on the Kurdish issue that if fully and consistently implemented signals an important new direction. He said, “We will talk with those who want to talk and will fight those who resort to terrorism.” That may sound obvious, but it is not. According to me, the prime minister announced that while the army will keep on bombing PKK hideouts in the Kandil Mountains, he is willing to sit down and talk to all Kurdish representatives who have made it clear they believe in political solutions. That would include of course BDP politicians but also, whether one likes it or not, imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, with whom the Turkish state has already been negotiating for a long time anyway.
The big challenge ahead is to isolate PKK diehards by opening a promising avenue for credible Kurdish representatives. This strategy will only work, though, under two conditions. The government has to be willing to offer their counterparts a substantial deal that goes a long way in satisfying legitimate Kurdish demands. On the other hand, Öcalan and the BDP need to be able to deliver, meaning that terrorist violence needs to stop once there is an agreement they are willing to defend. That may be the hard part and will only happen when Kurdish public opinion massively turns against ongoing PKK violence.
For these reasons I am cautiously optimistic that Turkey may be able to bypass square one this time.
