Optimism was in the air. Turkey still faced many challenges, but Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's historic victory offered tremendous political capital for the new government. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) seemed willing to tackle the most important problem Turkey has faced for last 30 years: the Kurdish question.
A new constitution that would democratically address the identity, citizenship and political dimensions of the Kurdish question seemed finally around the corner. Yet, as often happens, such optimism did not last long. First, the boycott of Parliament by the main opposition party raised tensions. Once this unnecessary and relatively minor crisis was solved, the BDP's similar boycott continued to polarize Turkish-Kurdish politics. Then, a series of attacks by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) further exacerbated the climate. New bouts of inter-communal violence in places like İstanbul's Zeytinburnu, in which Kurds and Turks confronted each other, caused major concerns. And after the new PKK attacks last week, Turkey today is at the brink of an all-out war against Kurdish militants not only within Turkish borders, but also in Iraqi Kurdistan. The situation increasingly looks like the beginning of the 1990s – a decade today remembered as the “lost” one.
As if the Kurdish situation and the negative turn of events were not causing enough problems, Turkey's foreign policy is also facing daunting challenges. Not long ago, the “zero-problems with neighbors” policy seemed like a resounding success. In a matter of months, however, the zero-problems policy turned to one of zero progress. Today, Turkey is facing a major deterioration in its relations with Syria – a country that was at the heart of AKP's new regional engagement with the Middle East. In addition to Syria, problems with Iraq are on the rise due to worsening dynamics on the PKK front. The fact that the Turkish Armed Forces are bombing the Kandil Mountains and are considering prospects of further military operations into northern Iraq will complicate relations between Ankara and Baghdad. Let's also not forget that Ankara and Baghdad are at the opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to Syria. The prime minister of Iraq, Nouri al-Maliki, is very supportive of Bashar al-Assad.
Finally, Turkey is facing tremendous challenges in its relations with Iran. Iran is, of course, the most important strategic ally of the regime in Damascus. Therefore, the Turkish position in vis-à-vis Syria naturally strains Turkish-Iranian relations. Moreover, Tehran is very nervous about Turkey's willingness to host the NATO missile defense system. The world is aware that the NATO missile defense system is a defensive measure against Iran. So, there you have it: Instead of zero problems, Turkey has multiple problems with all of its three southern neighbors. If you add to this list the problems with Armenia and Cyprus, you will find a dismal picture of Turkey actually facing mounting troubles with the majority of its neighbors.
To be sure, this darkening picture of foreign policy is not of Turkey's making. Ankara could not have predicted the events in Syria. And Turkey certainly did not willingly instigate a deterioration of relations with Iran and Iraq. Yet, the net result of all these negative dynamics is clear: Both at home and abroad, Turkey is in a very difficult period. Even the economy, which until recently was the brightest side of Turkey's growing soft power, now faces new problems because of a fast-approaching global recession. Under such circumstances, Turkey's political, diplomatic, economic and military options for dealing with Syria are very limited. At a time when Ankara is facing the mounting challenge of the PKK, the top priority will have to be domestic security. There is a widely held belief that if Turkey pushes too hard on Syria, both Tehran and Damascus could use the Kurdish card against Ankara. Despite its occasional cooperation with Turkey against the PKK, Iran is not likely to stand idle while Turkey undermines Syria or cooperates with NATO. It seems like the crisis in Syria will soon cause a major realignment in Turkish foreign policy.
