Over the weekend the world witnessed the spread of protests in the southern Syrian town of Daraa to almost everywhere in the country. What is driving the demonstrations in Syria? The answer is no different than in Tunisia, Egypt or Libya. The ruling bloc is a family that controls the armed forces, the intelligence services, the police and large chunks of the economy in order to maintain a repressive regime. There is considerable youth unemployment, poverty and boredom as well. The crucial question awaiting the country is clear: Will the Bashar Assad regime crush the discontent with brutal force or will it start genuine reforms?
If Mr. Assad fails to respond with restraint and genuine pro-democracy reforms, Syria may increasingly slide into a vicious cycle of confrontation and bloody suppression. By shooting more than 40 people this week in Daraa, the regime has only increased discontent. Activists argue that the death toll is much higher and that close to 100 people were shot dead in Daraa. As The New York Times and Al Jazeera reported, violence continued to plague Syria on Saturday and Sunday, as government forces killed more demonstrators in Latakia, protesters burned offices of the ruling party in the south and west, and mourners throughout the country buried the dozens of unarmed protesters killed on Friday.
Despite all the gloom and doom, there are also some weak signs of hope. In spite of its willingness to crush the rebellion, the Assad regime is simultaneously sending signals of reforms. On Thursday, a speaker for the government promised to raise state salaries and make “important decisions” on reform. Such verbal commitments to co-opt discontent seem too little too late to have much significance. Unless there is rapid action, instead of mere promises of reforms, the uprisings are likely to spread. The path of reform should start with the lifting of emergency law established decades ago, as in the case of Egypt. The regime needs to open up and allow the formation of opposition parties and a calendar for democratic elections needs to be declared. Clearly, the government should also take steps towards ending corruption and clientelism. In other words, the economy needs to stop being the realm of cronyism.
To expect all this from Damascus may well be wishful thinking. As all experts of the Middle East know, Syria is one of the most brutally repressive regimes in the Arab world. Assad’s father showed no mercy against the Muslim Brotherhood to protect his Baathist regime. It is estimated that Hafez Assad killed more than 20,000 people when he crushed the 1982 insurrection by the brotherhood in the city of Hama. A major complicating factor and source of contention in Syria is the fact that the regime is deeply sectarian: A small Alawite click is in charge of the Baathist regime despite the overwhelming demographic majority of Sunnis in the country. In that sense, the country is haunted by what happened in Iraq and Yugoslavia -- namely, sectarian and tribal turmoil once the autocratic regime collapses.
What does all this mean for Turkey? Ankara has had a love affair with Damascus under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government over the last eight years. The Syrian-Turkish bilateral relationship is a remarkable story of a journey from enmity to best friendship. This puts a lot responsibility and pressure on Turkey’s shoulders. The events in Syria will provide a crucial litmus test for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in terms of testing his commitment to democratization in the region.
Turkey is uniquely placed to apply some friendly advice and pressure on Syria for constitutional reforms. Over the weekend Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu delivered a lecture in which he emphasized the importance of striking the right balance in the Middle East between freedom and democracy. Damascus may be in no mood to listen, but this is the right time for Turkey to use its leverage with Syria to send a clear message that change is unavoidable. Syria’s balance between freedom and security will need to change with rapid political, social and economic reforms. The Assad regime needs to act now.
