The economy is booming; living conditions in the society have improved greatly; it has a more balanced foreign policy; and it is a key supplier of energy with a rising profile on the international stage. Astana is the only regional donor giving significant aid to Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan, and in 2006 Kazakhstan became the first country to share directly in the cost of a US government foreign assistance program. The nation’s profile was further enhanced in 2010 when Kazakhstan held the chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the first post-Soviet, predominantly Muslim and Central Asian country to do so. Kazakhstan is also the most ethnically diverse country of the former Soviet Union, with many different religions and about 140 ethnic groups. Kazakhstan is proud of its record of having ethnic harmony; it has not experienced any inter-ethnic conflicts. Unfortunately, there is a tendency in the West to clump all the countries of Central Asia – the so-called Stans -- together, branding them as undemocratic and autocratic. However, while Kazakhstan may have a “lifetime president,” it is nevertheless apart from the others and is presently going through something of a transition as the country takes steps to move further away from their image. One of the largest nations in the region, Kazakhstan is increasingly viewed as the most democratic and seems to be on track to be becoming even more so with its leadership undertaking reforms, including constitutional and electoral reform, apparently upgrading the election process to international standards. The process foresees transforming the country from a presidential to a presidential-parliamentary system with recent reforms increasing the likelihood that the next elections will result in a multiparty parliament as well as strengthening the power of the institution. However, not everything is perfect. Independent media have been restricted, opposition remains quite weak and difficulties persist linked to human rights. Therefore to what degree this reform process will be “genuine” and implemented remains to be seen. The presidential elections, slated for April 12, are also important for political development in Kazakhstan as they will be the start of a preparatory process for the succession of President Nursultan Nazarbayev, although there is nothing to indicate the 71-year-old is planning to retire any time soon. Nevertheless, all members of the political establishment, particularly the major competing clans, would like to see clear-cut arrangements for the succession in advance. This implies building a fairer election process (in which all political clans have equal chances) and stronger institutions. Kazakhs are not keen to see Nazarbayev depart. The president is different from others in the region because he is genuinely popular. In 2010 a US-conducted poll showed that around 91 percent of Kazakhs support his leadership. And why shouldn’t they, given that over the last 20 years Kazakhstan has become rich thanks to its oil and gas. Importantly, it has also managed to develop a genuine middle-class, something for which it is to be congratulated. Nazarbayev has also managed to maintain stability -- in an extremely difficult neighborhood embedded with instability and hardcore dictators -- something most of its neighbors have failed to do. Indeed, such is his popularity that he is even developing something of a cult. The national holiday celebrating the capital city, Astana, just happens to be Nazarbayev’s birthday; and at the top of Baiterek Tower in Astana is a bronze handprint of the president in which Kazakhs are meant to put their own hands and make a wish.
Nazarbayev, in his golden years, seems to be trying to turn Kazakhstan into a model for the region. In December 2010, a Kazakh citizen proposed a referendum to allow Nazarbayev, to remain in power without elections until 2020. After only a few days the petition had secured more than 5 million signatures. Nazarbayev publicly rejected the idea and instead proposed holding early presidential elections. Kazakhstan’s leadership cited this as proof of the improved democracy, but to others it just seemed more like a political show.
Therefore, despite all these efforts it is also not clear to what extent the international community believes Nazarbayev is sincere in his efforts to democratize the country. Of course, the proof of the pudding is in the eating, and it will be interesting to see what happens over the coming months. Nevertheless, this show of democracy, combined with the country’s key strategic location and important natural resources, seems to make Kazakhstan something of a positive example in the region. Nazarbayev really has an opportunity to prove his critics wrong and transform the nation into a role model for the rest of the region, making Kazakhstan the “locomotive of Central Asia.” This would be a great legacy to leave his country.
