Moscow expressed concern over the loss of human life as a result of air strikes. Russia was one of five countries that abstained from voting on UN Security Council Resolution 1973.
While Russia condemns the military intervention and asks for restraint it seems to have conveniently forgotten its own recent military adventures. There was, of course, Chechnya but more recently there was Moscow’s unilateral intervention into Georgia some two-and-a-half years ago. Back then Russia declared its intervention was necessary to protect South Ossetia civilians who they believed were threatened by Georgia. Russia went on to recognize the separatist regimes of the two breakaway states and to further consolidate its position in the region. Today both South Ossetia and Abkhazia are far less independent than they ever were before the war. Their reliance on Moscow has increased as Russia has increasingly tightened its economic, political and security grip. Russia continues to consolidate its presence in South Ossetia and Abkhazia: It currently deploys a number of large military units in both territories as well as having around 2,600 border troops and a coastal guard unit off the coast of Abkhazia
Yet the world has a habit of forgetting. As everyone’s attention is now focused on Libya, Egypt and Tunisia, which were both headlining news items a mere one month ago, are already slipping down the agenda of the international community and no longer make headline news. As for Georgia, well, clearly the journalists are long gone and the West, for the most part, seems to have widely accepted the new status quo with the peace process once again seemingly becoming almost (because it may not be that bad yet) locked into -- as many other such processes have -- talking for the sake of talking and taking on something like a least common denominator approach.
Two-and-a-half years since the Russia-Georgia war the peace process, known as the Geneva Process, whose members are Russia, Georgia, the EU, the US, the UN, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the internationally unrecognized Abkhaz and South Ossetian authorities, has made very little tangible progress. The aim of the process was to implement the cease-fire agreements signed in the aftermath of the war. However, after numerous rounds of talks Moscow still fails the implement a number of points with Russian forces remaining in forward-positions in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Nevertheless the security situation is now relatively stable and calm; there are far fewer civilian incidents now with the Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism (IPRM) currently in operation. Furthermore the Geneva Process still offers the only framework where representatives of the Georgian government can meet and have direct talks with representatives of the South Ossetian and Abkaz authorities, which is something positive.
Unfortunately, after 16 years on the ground, both the UN and OSCE have been ejected from South Ossetia and Abkhazia as a result of Russia blocking the renewal of their mandates, but placing the blame on the South Ossetians and Abkhazs. This was an extremely negative development because, while this mission may not have been the most effective, it at least provided an international magnifying glass on the two breakaway regions. Now it would seem that Russia has an almost exclusive playing field. Therefore, Russia with its strong military presence in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia, in addition to the two proxy votes it has in the Geneva Process talks though the presence of Tskhinvali and Sukumi, will continue to dominate the direction of the talks.
The EU, therefore, is the only international body left. Presently led by EU Special Representative, Pierre Morel (although his mandate runs out in August), it has a civilian Monitoring Mission which provides soft security for Georgia. Therefore stability and the consolidation of the status quo seem to be judged as some sort of success story.
Unfortunately the return of IDP’s and refugees to their homes in South Ossetia and Abkhazia seems a distant prospect which presently the Geneva Process is unable to move on. Moreover, it is also unfortunate that the international community seems unwilling to really tackle the Russians over the continued none compliance with the ceasefire agreement with Moscow deferring key issues to the Abkhaz and South Ossetian authorities which make progress almost impossible. Furthermore, Georgia’s proposals to have an international security mechanism with a presence on the ground in Abkhazia and South Ossetia has been rejected by Moscow.
Indeed it seems that in the global “pecking order” relations with Russia remain too important for too much boat rocking to take place. Clearly though, as Libya has demonstrated, the Russians have no such qualms about taking the moral ground with the West.
