The leader of the opposition and former president Levon Ter-Petrosian lost to the then-prime minister, Serzh Sarksyan by 21.5 percent to 53 percent. Eleven days of protests led to a state of emergency, with Armenia’s leadership finally resorting to a bloody crackdown that resulted in the deaths of 12 people and the jailing of many others. Armenia faced little international pressure to justify and investigate this violence or to release prisoners, a number of whom remain behind bars.
Events in North Africa have raised the political temperature again and buoyed up opposition Armenian National Congress (HAK) supporters to risk demonstrating their discontent over the leadership of President Sarksyan and his Republican Party of Armenia (HHK). On Feb. 18 and March 1 more than 10,000 people took to the streets with another rally planned for March 17. To limit numbers the government implemented measures to prevent people from travelling to Yerevan, including cancelling bus routes.The protestors want to mark the third anniversary of March 1, demanding that those guilty of the bloodshed be punished and calling on the international community to initiate an investigation into what happened. So far, not a single member of the law enforcement community has been prosecuted for the deaths that occurred on March 1. Secondly, they are calling on Sarksyan and the government to step down and demanding that the president call for early elections. And lastly, they are demonstrating displeasure at the state of the Armenian economy.Ter-Petrosian, who has accused Sarksyan of “Mubarakization,” has given Armenia’s leadership until March 15 to accept a list of demands. He has threatened that if it does not deliver, then Armenia may find itself facing revolts of the kind that brought down the Tunisian and Egyptian regimes, although Ter-Petrosian has not explained what exactly he will do. As well as demanding fresh polls, the ultimatum includes the release of political prisoners and steps to protect the most economically vulnerable of the population through actions such as increasing the minimum wage (currently 32,000 drams, or $89) and making a U-turn on the government’s decision to ban street vendors, which resulted in many people becoming jobless (unemployment is currently at around 45 percent).
Armenia has two closed borders and is excluded from regional energy and transport projects because of its continuing dispute with Azerbaijan over the Azerbaijani province of Nagorno-Karabakh. Therefore, economic survival is no small feat. The country is also overly dependent on Russia and remittances from its large diaspora community. Armenia was also badly hit by the global financial crisis with gross domestic product (GDP) contracting by around 15 percent in 2009, despite large loans from multinational institutions. The deep economic hardship has seriously added to public discontent. Nowadays, with prices rising, you would be hard pressed to find a single Armenian who is happy with the socioeconomic situation.
While the HHK and its partners may well be concerned about further demonstrations, they remain in no mood to compromise and or take part in serious political dialogue with the opposition. Sarksyan has just managed to garner support from the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) (the second largest party), so it is likely he already has the forthcoming parliamentary elections sewn up, which will bolster his position going into the presidential election.
Furthermore, the discontent over Armenia’s leadership cannot be compared to Tunisia, Egypt or Libya. While Sarksyan and his government do not rule the country with an iron fist, Armenia is still far from a democratic paradise. There is still no clear direction on democracy, and while Armenia claims to have a liberal polity, its governance trends are going backwards. To pick a few issues: There are shortcomings in the new electoral code (currently being considered by the Council of Europe), there is a new decree on NGOs that essentially gives the executive the power to shut down any NGO, and there are also problems with media freedom including cases linked to the digital switchover and court suits against some TV stations (Gala).
Visitors tend to be sheltered from harsh political realities and always seem to meet the same circle of Westernized politicians. These guys are hiding a Parliament that is more managed than sovereign. There is little rule of law, and corruption remains a huge problem. A number of key ministers own companies, so there is significant conflict of interest. There is also a lack of judicial independence, and the president has discretionary approval of judges.However, while Armenia faces many challenges, it seems unlikely these protests will gather as much steam as Ter-Petrosian would like. The actions of both Armenia’s leadership and the opposition are crucial as a repeat of the sort of violence witnessed in 2008 would be highly undesirable, and Armenia may find itself under significant international condemnation, with serious consequences.
