The EU has almost become a non-issue in Turkey (although French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s recent visit did spark a renewed interest) and it will not feature highly in the campaigning for the June parliamentary elections. Many of those working in Turkey’s Prime Ministry’s Secretariat General for EU Affairs have lost their enthusiasm, and the Delegation of the European Union to Turkey in Ankara seemingly has plans to scale back its 140 staff. While the situation is frustrating for both sides, at the same time both partners are prepared to live with it.
It has been almost eight months since a negotiating chapter was last opened. A recent article in Reuters stated that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is desperately trying the revive Turkey’s EU membership bid but I am not convinced of this. Rather he is making statements blaming the EU or advising Turks living in EU member states, as he recently did in Germany, to strongly resist assimilation and make sure their children learn Turkish before German. As Cem Özdemir, co-chair of the German Greens said: “Ankara would do better to solve its own problems. The problems of our children living in Germany can be only solved by Berlin.” While Erdoğan regularly criticizes the EU for becoming increasingly xenophobic, he is guilty of contributing to this rise by making such statements. It really makes me wonder what happened to the man who won the “European of the Year” title in 2004 by the European Voice.
Ankara believes it is blameless for the current impasse. Rather, that this is the making of the EU -- principally the French, Germans and Greek Cypriots. When ministers travel to Brussels they all say the same thing. The EU needs to see the error of its ways because Turkey will be the engine of the EU economy and the force that will make the EU a serious foreign policy actor. So far this approach has not had the desired effect.
Who knows how long this siesta will last. It could be months or years. Waking from this siesta is dependent on two issues: The resolution of the Cyprus problem, and a change in leadership in France and/or Germany. The second may be more likely than the first, but only the first can totally open the way to EU entry. Having a more pragmatic approach from France may not be that far off given there is every chance Sarkozy will not be re-elected next year. His departure may mean a more realistic personality who will show vision rather than pedal populism. Sarkozy’s opposition to Turkey’s membership won him nothing. Rather it has cost France. As President Gül said recently, “The blockage of Turkey’s EU negotiations by France shadows possible cooperation in many other areas.” This includes nuclear power with the French expressing a strong interest to build Turkey’s second nuclear power station. As long as Sarkozy is around Ankara will not be offering France such a gift.
In this “in between” period the EU and Turkey continue to conduct their business and they have plenty of issues to work on. Two weeks ago the trade minister was in Brussels, then last Friday the foreign minister, and this coming Thursday the energy minister. While they may touch on the EU talks, it will certainly not dominate discussions. Life goes on and so will Turkey-EU relations. It is simply in neither party’s interest to break off the negotiations, so they will slumber on.
Irrespective of the EU, Turkey still has a lot of work to do. Reforms should continue and Ankara should really demonstrate that it is a “pillar of stability and responsibility in the region,” and a model for those countries in North Africa that are presently in turmoil. In this light Turkey needs do the right thing in northern Cyprus. While Turkish Cypriots want to remain on good terms with Ankara, they want to govern themselves including their security. This represents a test for Ahmet Davutoğlu’s policy of zero problems with neighbors. These neighbors are “brothers” but sometimes -- as was the case with Azerbaijan -- “brothers” are the people whom Turkey shows the least respect to. Ankara needs to act with credibility, not making insulting statements. However, if the Turkish Cypriots really want this, then Turkey should no longer hold back on what they are legally obliged to do vis-à-vis the Greek Cypriots and extend its EU customs union, opening its airports and harbors to the Greek Cypriots. This would unblock around 15 chapters.
I have never believed the current stalemate represents the end of the road for Turkey’s EU goal. Turkey and the EU simply share too many strategic interests. Unfortunately, today’s leaderships lack courage and vision. I do not know how long we will have to wait but I would like to believe that in the end a new era of leadership will appear which will get the project of European unification back on track.
