What happened next surprised the world. Ukraine, a geo-strategically important country with fertile soil, considerable energy resources and a young, well-educated population, spent the next five years in mayhem, with initial euphoria quickly turning sour. Yushchenko found himself unable to work with Tymoshenko, with the two engaging in a vicious circle of blame and destruction. The Ukrainian parliament was unable to function for weeks at a time, political stability became a dream and the global financial crisis brought Ukraine’s fragile economy to the brink of collapse. Government coalitions collapsed and new ones were formed only to crumble again a few months later. Basically, Ukraine fell to bits. Relations with the EU became little more than lip service, Washington found itself unable to understand Yushchenko’s policies, while ties with Moscow hit an all time low, with Yushchenko following in the footsteps of Georgian President Mikeil Saakashvili giving Moscow the cold shoulder.
After five years it came to an end when Ukrainians removed Yushchenko from power and offered Yanukovych a second chance. It was time for Ukraine’s leadership to put the country back together and deliver tangible results to the long-suffering population. Has Yanukovych delivered?
Yanukovych promised no more empty declarations; strengthened ties with the EU; normalized relations with Russia; and more money in pockets, better public services and key reforms. He also pledged to be a credible and reliable partner for the West, leading Ukraine in a pragmatic fashion. Frankly, there was some skepticism. Many Westerners view Ukrainians (particularly Ukraine’s leadership) as being either pro-Russian or pro-Western. Yanukovych has long since been stereotyped as a Kremlin man, so there was strong belief that he would simply take instructions from Moscow.
While Yanukovych has mended fences with Moscow, he is no nodding dog and has defied Russia many times. He has also strengthened ties with the EU, carrying out a significant number of EU-demanded reforms (even though Ukraine has no membership perspective) and brought the country into the European Energy Community. While the economy is still far from healthy, it is slowly getting some bounce back, although further economic reforms are needed to assure continued financial assistance. Having had the same government for 12 months, stability has returned; public transport has improved, including Kyiv’s metro system; and Yanukovych has pledged to fight Ukraine’s pandemic corruption on all levels, including the notorious traffic police. With 2011 marking 20 years since independence, he has promised to forge ahead with deeper reforms, including drafting a new constitution with the involvement of all political parties and civil society.
This is all good stuff. However, Yanukovych has also been accused of eroding democracy, consolidating power and of “selective justice” as a number of high-ranking opposition figures, including Tymoshenko, are investigated on charges of corruption, with the EU being pushed to react (although a high number of his own Party of the Region’s representatives are also under investigation). While a close eye needs to be kept on developments, many of the accusations seem to originate from the Tymoshenko camp. Unfortunately, Tymoshenko and Yanukovych are increasingly engaged in a “tit for tat” political battle which is now being dragged into EU hallways. Yanukovych and his government should not waste energy on this game. Tymoshenko has gained no ground in the last year and is incapable of “uniting” Ukraine’s opposition. She has always been a one-woman show. The government’s continued sparring with her only serves to give her ill-deserved limelight and newspaper space.
The EU (with the exception of the European Parliament’s EPP, of which Tymoshenko’s BYuT is a member) is taking a pragmatic approach to these accusations, prudently not judging too quickly. The EU should tread carefully because Ukraine is an important partner, currently stable and carrying out a far more intense reform agenda than previously and needs to be encouraged to keep going. Brussels should not push Ukraine away, particularly at a time when Yanukovych remains eager to be viewed as a credible leader who wishes to engage and be respected by the West.
In 2012 Ukraine will host the UEFA European Football Championship. This is a great opportunity for Yanukovych to showcase this wonderful country. With little or no opposition, Yanukovych still has a great opportunity. There is nothing to gain by taking Ukraine backwards in terms of democracy, particularly at a time when autocratic leaders are falling almost on a weekly basis. Rather, there is much more to gain by continuing the reform program Yanukovych vigorously began and ensuring Ukraine remains a democratic country, strengthening political pluralism and the rule of law.
