Perhaps only Russia, if one day Moscow decided to apply, could surpass it. On the other hand Iceland will almost certainly be one of the easiest. As one European Commission official recently put it: Iceland is a nice, easy ride, being an almost perfect country.
The next couple of years will see a battle for the hearts and minds of Icelanders which will culminate in a referendum to decide whether or not Iceland becomes the 29th member of the EU given that Croatia is expected to make it through the door first, becoming the 28th.
EU membership is a demand-driven project, and usually candidates can hardly wait for the day they are eventually allowed in. Iceland represents a different story. While Iceland is on track to have the quickest ever passage into the EU, their membership application could be described as something of a lame duck, as it would seem that this almost perfect country does not really want to join the EU.
Iceland has traditionally been opposed to membership, but following the economic crisis which engulfed the tiny island, practically bringing about a collapse of the country’s financial system, it opened a window of opportunity for the minority that did support it to sell membership given it would offer Iceland solidarity in times of difficulty but also offer better access to capital markets. This resulted in enough support being drummed up to allow Iceland to submit a membership application in June 2009. One year later the EU gave Iceland the green light and the screening process began.
For the EU, Iceland is almost the perfect candidate country. Being part of the European Economic Free Trade Area (EFTA) and the Schengen passport-free travel zone, it means that around three-quarters of Icelandic legislation is already harmonized with EU laws. It has no democratic deficits, no corruption and is environmentally friendly. The negotiation process is expected to take around three years, with the first chapters being opened this summer. And because the island is already so close to the EU, quite a lot of chapters will be opened and closed on the same day.
However, with so many people, including the powerful farmers, fishermen and business community, opposing, getting a “yes” may prove impossible. Recent opinion polls show that 60 percent of Icelanders want the EU application scrapped. Another poll showed that 70 percent would reject joining the EU in a referendum, with 58 percent not trusting the Icelandic government to defend Iceland’s interests in talks with the EU.
As in many other states, there is a limited knowledge of the EU in Iceland, with very little done to better inform the public. Those opposed to membership are using this information gap to their advantage. For example, there has been a story circulating that membership will mean all Icelandic men will be obliged to join an EU army.
In order to get a “yes” vote, the islanders will need to be sold on a number of issues and, as the recent “mackerel war” demonstrated, Icelanders are no pushover. The “mackerel war” refers to the refusal by Iceland to continue negotiations with Norway and the EU and accept a lower mackerel quota, after unilaterally setting its own quota for 2010 at 130,000 tons. Finally an agreement was reached, but not before a lot of tough wrangling. One can expect the same approach on a number of other key issues.
First, Iceland will need an excellent deal on fisheries. They want to stay in charge of their own waters, some 760,000 square kilometers. Fishing is the backbone of the Icelandic economy, representing 70 percent of the country’s export income, with per capita income from fishing being 100 times higher than the EU average.
They will also want to have a good result on agriculture. Iceland has a large rural community that is very powerful politically. A stabilization agreement with the European Central Bank for the Icelandic krona would also be desirable.
Then there is the issue of whale hunting, which is seen as a traditional activity of the islanders, with only Iceland and Norway being the sole countries in the world that authorize commercial whaling. Icelanders do not want to give this up, but it will be almost more impossible for Iceland to get derogation on this because under EU law all cetaceans, including whales, are protected.
It seems like the “yes” camp has ahead of it a very difficult task if it is to convince the Icelandic population that they will be better off in the EU. Presently it seems more likely that Iceland might well become the first EU candidate country to say thanks, but no thanks.
