First, Tunisia, then Egypt, and then, no one knows where. The people of Egypt, from all walks of life, including secularists and conservatives, youths and the elderly, are shouting “Enough is enough.” They are saying that they are done with the 30-year-long despotism. They have stood up to reclaim their dignity, which has long been trampled. Neither a political party to lead them nor a well-designed theory of revolution was needed. As in the French Revolution, they took to the streets. Al Jazeera, Facebook and Twitter were the tools of the revolution. It is clear that the days of the Mubarak regime are numbered. What will replace it?
Some claim that a society that has lacked any democratic organization for many years cannot transition to democracy overnight.
I think they’re wrong. But the most well-organized powers will obviously benefit greatly from this change. In Egypt the most organized power is the army, followed by the Muslim Brotherhood. This implies three options for Egypt as suggested by some Western periodicals: a military dictatorship like Burma; a theocratic dictatorship like Iran; or democracy like Turkey.
The demand for change is coming from educated yet unemployed groups. No regime that cannot meet the demands of these young people can remain stable.
A military dictatorship may enjoy some fleeting success but is certainly doomed to decay and tumble down in the medium term. An Iran-like theocratic dictatorship will put Egypt into trouble in the international arena while failing to satisfy the needs of the society, as is the case in Iran. Thus, the most likely option is the Turkey model.
Turkey is just watching the developments silently, which indicates that Ankara believes the Mubarak regime may still survive the protest.
However, Ankara must be active in this period. By leveraging its soft power, Turkey may play a role in the region’s healthy transition to democracy. Turkey is a good example of how Islam and democracy can coexist and how people can receive equal treatment despite their different beliefs. Of course, there is a long way to perfection, but even its current position is sufficient to be taken as a model. As a country that has been a cradle of major civilizations, Egypt can successfully implement the Turkey model.
A changing Middle East offers great economic and political opportunities for Turkey.
Not only with its economy, but also with its legal system that is being quickly reformed, its spreading education system and its health system, Turkey may make constructive contributions to the process of change for these countries. The winds of change blowing from Tunisia to Egypt present great opportunities for regional leadership for Turkey, and it is a historic opportunity. Turkey had had a similar opportunity in the past when the Soviet Union collapsed, but the conditions have never been as favorable as today. But today there is a favorable milieu.
This time, cards must be played correctly both for Turkey and for the people of the region.
