Bülent Arınç, an influential figure in the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), and Parliament Speaker Mehmet Ali Şahin lent their support to the president. But Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan continues to demand a “presidential system.” Erdoğan told the Akşam daily’s Ankara bureau chief Çiğdem Toker that he wanted a “two-party parliament” and a “presidential system.” Like late President Turgut Özal, Erdoğan believes a two-party system encourages political stability, which in turn ensures rapid growth.
This point of view is not solely based on the belief that a presidential system is better than a parliamentary system. It’s also supported by the desire for a president to be able to pull all the strings. Özal and Süleyman Demirel were both examples of how a leader lost power upon entering the Çankaya presidential palace. Regardless of how influential a leader may be, he becomes isolated and loses power when he becomes the president and stops being the focus of power.
Erdoğan does not want to be an isolated president with limited power. He wants to be the president that puts Turkey in a new league in time for the centennial of the republic, which was founded in 1923. It is for this reason that he is patiently preparing for the upcoming election. Whilst doing this, he is trying to win votes from both nationalists and conservative people.
He is trying to fill a void in every field, partially benefiting from the opposition’s weakness. Regardless of how many votes the Republican People’s Party (CHP) wins, it faces the risk of not being able to send deputies from at least 50 provinces. As for the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), it might not even be able to pass the election threshold. All of these conditions provide Erdoğan with the chance of winning immense support. Those who are concerned about not being able to pass the threshold are considering forming an alliance between the Grand Unity Party (BBP), the Democrat Party (DP) and the MHP. It won’t be too surprising if the CHP brings a few parties from the left together under its roof, but just how much they can help the CHP in the polls is speculative.
If the AK Party secures around 50 percent of the vote in the June elections then the new constitution will definitely include the presidential system. That is because regardless of the party’s power balances, Erdoğan is still the ultimate decider. There isn’t anyone who can oppose his wishes. This is due to a tradition that relies on the mentality of resolving issues within the party regardless of any differences of opinion. As a result, we can say that due to the high probability of a presidential system, President Gül’s term will be seven years and AK Party members with aspirations of becoming the next prime minister after Erdoğan will be disappointed.
As for the problems a presidential system will create in a country that once reinforced the sultanate tradition by practicing one-man rule is obviously another topic.
It is apparent that we are going to spend the next year debating the presidential system. You should be prepared.
