Thus, the apprehension of Abdullah Öcalan in Kenya helped the late Bülent Ecevit become prime minister at the time. Now, in every election that has been held since the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) came to power, we saw the PKK come to the agenda in one way or another.
There is an upcoming election in June and, as usual, the PPK and Öcalan have come up again, this time not with their terrorist attacks on military outposts, but with their demands. These demands were brought to the agenda in a manner that would make the skin of the people in the west crawl and boost nationalist sentiments.
It is a fact that the PKK leader does not like the AK Party, seeing it as an obstacle to a solution and a threat to its secular tradition. This much is clear in the statements made from Kandil. The PKK will not be happy about an AK Party strong enough to change the Constitution alone after the elections.
Meanwhile, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's rise to the top of the Republican People's Party (CHP) was a strategic maneuver by Turkey's clandestine forces. A CHP with Deniz Baykal at the helm would not secure the votes needed to establish a coalition government between the CHP and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). However, with the lack of intraparty democracy, Baykal could not have been sent away through a party congress. Thus, he was removed from office through a video scandal aided by the media.
Önder Sav was also a part of this operation, but he, too, was an obstacle to turning the party into a "moderately Kemalist" one. With assistance from the high judiciary, Sav was removed from the office of secretary-general. Despite numerous breaches of law during the party congress the judiciary consistently ruled in favor of Kılıçdaroğlu, desiring a Kılıçdaroğlu-led party without Sav.
The web of relationships built by Gürsel Tekin during his office as the head of the CHP's İstanbul branch effectively served this purpose.
The unwanted figures of the transition period were also eliminated to reinforce a moderate party management. But in the meantime, something unexpected happened. It was discovered that by promoting "no" in the recent referendum, the MHP had alienated part of its voters and is now facing the risk of not passing the election threshold.
If only two parties pass the election threshold, as was the case in 2002, the AK Party would have the majority necessary to change the constitution alone by securing at least 40 percent of the national vote.
Such a picture would mean that dreams of a CHP-MHP coalition will end up in smoke. In order to prevent this, the nationalist voters in the west must be provoked. This is where the Öcalan factor comes in. With his demand for a democratic autonomy, which means quasi-independence with its flag, defensive force, etc., Öcalan serves to incite the nationalist voters.
The fact that the AK Party did not take any serious steps in its democratic initiative over the past two years has made it seem unconvincing in its promises in the east. Despite the good economic performance, the state, the media and the business sector are not comfortable with the ruling government. They believe that another term with the AK Party will irrevocably change the capital and legal structure. For this reason, we are yet at the beginning of the road. We will witness many more maneuvers before June.
Contrary to the widely held misconception, this country is not full of surprises; it is just the same old tricks that are repeatedly brought to the agenda. The question is what will the government's move be.
