When Bush was elected, it had a great effect on Turkey via the start of the war in Iraq. The most recent midterm elections in the US, and the general sense of defeat experienced by Obama and the Democratic Party, will have both direct and indirect effects on Turkey. First, though, let’s underline one reality at hand: Obama has not received the support he both expected and deserved in relation to Turkey. And to tell the truth, this failure by Turkey to give support when needed by an American president, who visited Turkey on his first official trip abroad and who expressed support for Ankara at every opportunity, has prepared the way for an all-around difficult situation.
The determining factor in this latest round of American elections was, of course, the economy, but there will definitely be results from the elections that are reflected in foreign policy. If we think about the fact that the Republican Party now holds the majority in the House of Representatives, we can easily speculate that Turkey’s problems with Israel will stand out even more clearly than before. Obama was elected US president during a time when clashes between Islam and Christianity had reached an all-time peak, and his stance and policies have led to important steps being taken towards reducing the levels of tension. Also, Obama has approached solutions using more peaceful methods than his predecessor. For Turkey, which is directly affected by both economic and security matters related to the Iraq war, this is a very important fact. Washington has also made great contributions towards the strides taken in finding solutions to the Kurdish problem.
In short, if in the American presidential elections, which will occur two years from now, a Republican who has support from the Tea Party heads for the White House, it will lead to serious problems not only for Turkey but for the region in general. Conservative governments generally prefer to work with Republican presidents, but in this case that would mean completely ignoring the very different stance brought about by Obama. Thus, with the next round of presidential elections in the US it would be in Turkey’s best interest for Obama to be president for another four years.
Any change in Washington policies that sparks a flare-up in violence or that encourages Israel to not heed the law would have a negative effect not only on Turkey’s balances, but the balances that guide the general region. Ankara needs to see this reality, and to adopt a stance that lends support to Obama over the coming two years.
Of course, such a stance will not be the determining factor in American elections two years from now. But it will help Obama’s mental state focus on winning the upcoming elections. Yes, Obama has -- by failure to guide the economy, by problems with the business world and by his elitist stance that belies a distance from the people of the nation -- lost much of the credibility he had gained up to now. But losses in midterm elections actually give the opportunity for more serious preparations for general elections, and it is a frequently seen phenomenon that presidents whose parties experience defeat in midterm elections go on to win the general elections. It is to Obama’s advantage that the American economy, along with the global economy, is entering a new period accompanied by signals of strengthening. The real task that lies before him is transforming the awakening in the economy into real jobs. Obama has not shown adequate speed in terms of backing the renewal of the American infrastructure through things like high-speed train projects. And one of the results of this is that unemployment remains at around 10 percent. Let us hope that Obama’s new economic team will be able to overcome these problems.
The global community really needs Obama, for his stance towards the Islamic world, his diplomatic efforts and his close relations with different cultures. It, at the same time, does appear that Obama has learned his lessons from recent midterm elections. Let’s hope also that the result will be that he takes the right steps this time around.
