Americans are understandably concerned about the next Sept. 11. After all, wasn’t Mohammed Atta, the ringleader of the hijackers, a young Egyptian Muslim radicalized in Europe? For Europeans, the danger is much closer. Unaccustomed to being a land of immigration, they are increasingly worried about their cultural identity, economic well being and physical security. When emotions run so high, perception defines reality. The sense of despair and panic about the Islamization of Europe comes in different forms. The most classical one is about demographics. According to the “Eurabian” literature, ever-increasing Muslim birthrates will dwarf Christian rates and radically alter the social fabric of the continent over the next 30-40 years. Another variant of Eurabia is ideological: Rampant Islamism is met with typical European appeasement and pacifism. Alarmists believe that it will be too late when Europe finally wakes up to put an end to its naive and helpless attitude toward militant Islam in its midst.It is not surprising that such alarmism fuels Islamophobia. In its most subtle form, concerns about Eurabia create a backlash against multiculturalism. Ironically, this is the case even in countries like France and Germany, where multiculturalism was never the norm. The recent rash of burqa-banning laws and the Swiss ban on minarets are clear examples of this European rebellion against cultural relativism. According to this view, multiculturalism (based on cultural relativism) breeds parallel societies and the ghettoization of Islam. Islamic radicalism thrives in these parallel societies.
Finally, there is even a foreign policy dimension to the problem: growing European opposition to Turkey’s EU membership. A Muslim and increasingly Islamist Turkey, it is argued, will only worsen Europe’s nightmare with uncontrolled Muslim immigration and Islamization. After all, Turkey’s population is already 75 million and it will be the largest country in the EU if it is ever to become a member in 10 years or so.
Are Europeans right to be so concerned? Is Europe really turning into Eurabia? A closer look at facts and trends will help us strike more balance in our analysis. Let’s start with demographics. Yes, Muslim birth rates in Europe are still high compared to the Christian majority. But the trend is in decline. It is very likely that Muslim birthrates will flatten in the next decade and slowly begin to converge with European norms. The projections showing a Muslim majority in Europe by 2050 are wildly off the mark. The reason is simple: They project a population increase based on a one-off trend in the 1980s when family reunification programs doubled the number of Muslims in Europe.
To the dismay of anti-immigration and xenophobic right-wing groups, millions of new Muslim immigrants came to Europe in the 1980s thanks to such family reunification programs. By the end of the 1980s the Muslim population of France had tripled from 1 million in the mid-1960s to 3 million. Similar dynamics were at play in Germany, Britain and Holland. Most of the alarmist demographic projections pointing at Muslim majorities by 2050 use the sharp increase in the 1980s as the norm for the future. They are, therefore, misleading. Even relatively more sober projections focusing on the current Muslim birthrate overlook the fact that fertility rates of Muslim women in Europe are in decline. In Germany, for instance, Muslim women gave birth to two more children, on average, than their native German counterparts in 1990. In 1996 the difference was down to one; and in 2008 it dropped to 0.5. Those who argue that Europe will turn into a Muslim-majority Eurabia should remember that the total Muslim population in the EU-25 is around 15 million, just 3.7 percent of the total European population. By 2030, if current trends continue, the Muslim population is likely to increase to 25 million, or 6 percent of the total. By any stretch of the imagination, these numbers are not conducive to a “Muslim Europe.” We will continue on this topic next week.
