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May 26, 2012
 
 
 
 
 
 
Columnists 06 September 2010, Monday 0 0 0 0
BÜLENT KENEŞ
b.kenes@todayszaman.com

My referendum guess: People will say ‘yes’ by exhausting ‘no’s

Today I will start off assertively and share with you my guess that the constitutional reform package -- which I strongly support, but find insufficient -- will be approved by securing “yes” votes of between 57 and 60 percent. As a person who has been monitoring the developments in the Turkish political arena, my intuition tells me that the nation’s democratic consciousness and social awareness will not allow “yes” votes at a lower percentage.
But my instincts also tell me that many people are motivated to say “no” for reasons unrelated to the package than to say “yes” because the package was passed by the ruling party -- suffering from the weariness of being in power for the last eight years -- alone and without support from opposition parties despite efforts to cooperate with them. I’m even tempted to liken this “yes” process in the referendum to the “yes” process prior to marriage. While what I’m about to say applies to women, it is true for men as well.

As you know, when planning to marry someone, you have to overcome all obstacles urging you to say “no” before you are finally able to say “yes” to the prospective candidate. For instance, the guy may be short, and this is enough for you to say “no.” Or he may be bald, and you find this sufficient reason to say “no.” He may not be the wittiest person you have ever met, and this may push you to not even consider saying “yes.” He may be slightly overweight, and so you hesitate to say “yes.” He may be extremely lean, and you don’t like it. You may be picky about his profession, and thereby automatically reject him. Or maybe you don’t like his family, and that is another reason to say “no.” Perhaps you don’t like his education, another reason to say “no.” His salary might be low, and you won’t say “yes” to a poor life.

You make like everything about him, but you may not like the color of his skin or his eyes, or how he walks or laughs. We haven’t even begun discussing the moral, ethical and behavioral aspects of deciding about marriage yet. But all these or similar small or big issues may drive you to the point of saying “no.” For instance, you may like everything about your prospective spouse, but you may learn something you don’t like from his past, and this may invite you to say “no.” Or his past and present may be just perfect, but he may make such a big blunder that you instantly turn away from him and say “no.” To cut a long story short, you have to refute or exhaust all reasons urging you to say “no” in the process of marriage so that you can firmly say “yes” and take a concrete step towards building a happy home.

The revolutionary constitutional reform package we will vote on in a referendum next weekend has a similar fate. For instance, you may have grown weary of the same political party governing the country for eight years, and you may feel an inner urge to say “no” to this considerably democratic constitutional reform package, one to which you would normally not object merely because this political party has prepared it. You don’t like your salary, and that is a reason to say “no.” You may not have had a good career, and you may say “no” out of vengeance. Maybe you failed to pass the university exam, and so have yet another reason to say “no.” You were not appointed to where you wanted, and so your response will be “no.” Or maybe you weren’t promoted, so you’re leaning towards a “no.” It might be that you were not awarded a contract you have been trying hard to win, and you will only cool down after saying “no.” You may be suffering from economic hardship due to your failure to keep up with developments -- say you’re an owner of a small grocery store and you’ve got no chance running against big shopping malls -- and you put the blame on the government, resolving to vote “no” in the referendum. These examples can be multiplied endlessly.

In other words, you may find a number of relevant or irrelevant reasons to say “no” even though you are supposed to concentrate on what the constitutional package will offer in terms of democratization and turning Turkey into a true state governed by the rule of law. This is especially true at a time when a slew of political parties are waging defamation campaigns and pumping lies into circulation about the package -- among them the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). You may readily use one of these blatant lies to say “no.” In short, every negative thing you assume to be going on in your personal life or in the country may drive you to say “no.”

As I stated at the beginning of my article, however, saying “yes” implies a higher political and democratic awareness and social sensitivity. I believe that our nation is aware of the fact that the general elections to be held 10 months later will offer a real opportunity for expressing all sorts of discontent with the ruling party. That is why, I believe, the voters will act more rationally in the referendum. They will overcome all of their personal reasons to say “no” and they will say “yes” to the reform package as it offers a golden opportunity for democratization and transparency and reinforces the rule of law. They will vote “yes” as the package will pave the way for newer and more radical reforms to save democracy from military and bureaucratic tutelage and make the national will the sole sovereign power and turn the country into a civilian and democratic country. I believe that the majority of the people are aware of these justifications, and so I expect a strong “yes” showing.

Polls suggest that undecided voters make up 10-13 percent of the electorate, and it is said that the outcome will be decided by this undecided group. I should note that this group, which I would prefer will say “yes,” is a source of hope for me. This is because it consists of potential “yes” voters who still cannot find a convincing reason to say “no.” Indeed, they would already have made up their minds for some reason if they were going to say “no.” In addition to the high level of political awareness and social sensitivity of all voters, this undecided group is revving up my hopes. I believe they will overcome all reasons urging them to say “no” and move toward the “yes” goal.

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