In recent times relations with Russia plunged to their worst in decades. US President Barack Obama set out on a rescue mission and some 18 months since he launched “operation reset” with the Kremlin, while still somewhat delicate, relations have warmed up and the talk of a new cold war -- which was so frequently in the headlines in the dying days of former President George W. Bush’s presidency -- is a thing of the past. When it comes to Europe, things have also improved. Moscow has held out the olive branch of peace with their old foe Poland as a way of showing their commitment to improving relations with the EU, which were severely damaged by a number of disputes including the disruption of gas supplies via Ukraine and the murder of the Russian exile, Alexander Litvinenko.Nevertheless Russia remains a tetchy partner and continues to deeply resent criticism and interference from the West -- for example, the criticism dished out by the US following the arrest of Boris Nemtsov, former Russian deputy prime minister and leader of the Solidarity opposition movement, was not welcomed, with Moscow telling the West to keep its nose out of Russia’s business.
While Obama’s reset has gone some way to repairing the damage of recent years, a lot of fragility remains. The Russians always push to have things done on their terms. While Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has stated he is “reasonably” happy with the reset, he has also said that there are issues which displease him and could upset the new harmony if the US is not careful. The list of unacceptable actions includes the apparent re-arming of Georgia by the US, which Putin claims has already been going on for some time. Moscow is also unhappy about continuing US plans for anti-missile systems in Central Europe -- for example, the radar base in the Czech Republic. It is also no secret that Russia was unhappy about recent unilateral sanctions placed on Iran by Washington (and the EU).
Furthermore, being tied up in other parts of the world the US seems to have given Moscow something of a carte blanche in their near abroad, and the Russians will continue to push the boundaries here as far as they can. While they cannot resurrect the old Soviet Union -- although it is no secret that Putin has previously stated that the collapse of the Soviet Union was one of the greatest catastrophes in Russian history -- there is no doubt Moscow is dead set on expanding and consolidating their zone of influence as far as they can. This has most clearly been seen in the Black Sea region, the South Caucasus and Central Asia, where they have an increasing security presence and economic ties. At the same time Russia continues to play “pipeline politics,” finding ways and methods to keep control over the maximum number of pipelines and gas sources -- in order to maintain its dominant position on European markets -- which is creating a considerable stumbling block for Western-backed pipeline projects.
Russia will continue to throw its weight around simply because it can. It knows that the West (in particular the US) cannot afford not to work with Moscow. There are a whole host of issues to support this including cooperation on Iran, Afghanistan and North Korea; the crucial role that Russia plays in conflicts in the post-Soviet space (Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia and Abkhazia) as well as being influential in the Middle East; Moscow’s crucial role in the war on terror; energy; climate change and other global environmental issues. The list could go on. Moscow desires respect and wants to be treated as an equal partner and nothing less. But while Moscow projects an air of self-confidence and economic might, the country still suffers from a great deal of insecurity and is backward in many respects (including technologically) -- a weakness that should not be underestimated by the West in its cooperation with Moscow.
And while the West would love to see greater democracy and freedoms in Russia -– something they thought President Medvedev may inch forward during his presidency -- this has failed to materialize, and it seems the current leadership and its interpretation of democracy -- controlled democracy -- will be around for some time to come. Earlier this week, during a newspaper interview Putin gave a strong hint that he would run for the presidency again in 2012. Back in 2008 he stepped down in order to observe a law banning a third consecutive term and handed over the reins to his chosen successor, Medvedev. However, the world has hardly missed Putin. Two years since Putin cleared his desk in the Kremlin, he is still seen as the “the man in charge.”
However, no matter who materializes as the future president, the importance of Russia to the West is not going to recede. Only by engaging with Moscow will the West be able to achieve its global aims, including important security related issues, even if the price tag Moscow attaches to this cooperation continues to often be higher than some might like.
