This referendum is not a general election. It is not supposed to be an assessment of the performance of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Rather voters are being asked to say “yes” or “no” to a specific set of amendments in order to update and modernize the present Jurassic-like Constitution. It is a complex list of reforms that covers a wide-ranging spectrum of issues from selecting judges to the better protection of children. In theory it should have nothing do to with what the government has or has not done over the last few years. Of course, this referendum has become everything to do with what the government has or has not done. It has become a vote of confidence for the AKP.In recent weeks the campaign has turned into a nasty, vindictive affair with the prime minister and the leader of the main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) trading aggressive rhetoric. One could almost compare it to a football match where the fans spend most of the time yelling nasty comments at the other side rather than cheering on their own team. While the AKP are selling the amendments as some sort of “magic medicine” which will solve nearly all of Turkey’s problems, those opposed are using it as an opportunity to dig up the AKP’s skeletons, portraying the prime minister as a corrupt, dictatorial, oligarch who has accumulated unprecedented levels of wealth and the government as a group of radical Islamists that are intent on turning Turkey into the next Iran. Unfortunately, among all this saber rattling and acrimonious rhetoric both sides seem to have forgotten to explain precisely what people will be voting for, and the 50 million or so eligible voters remain almost oblivious to what it’s all about. Turkish President Abdullah Gül has already stepped in, warning political leaders to watch their manners while campaigning and criticized parties for urging citizens to vote “yes” or “no” without explaining the details.
Everything in Turkey is so black and white, with opinions often cast in stone. A few days ago a Turkish friend of mine told me the proposed changes were a threat to the future of a free and liberal Turkey, and that his family and friends would be voting against it and that he would not be satisfied until the chief tyrant, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, was languishing in prison. This friend is a well-educated and informed person, but he strongly believes the AKP is a danger to Turkey on all levels. He deeply resents what he calls the “creeping conservatism” in the country which is presenting itself in many different ways, including the fact that it is now almost impossible to find a bottle of wine for less than 30 euros. He believes that what he described as Turkey’s “center right,” are feeling increasingly excluded, sidelined and even oppressed by the growing support for the so called conservative tastes of the ruling AKP. The West, he said, has no real clue what the AKP is up to; they simply don’t understand Turkey or what is at stake.
In particular, the opposition continues to claim the AKP is using the constitutional amendments on the Constitutional Court and the Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors (HSYK) to grab more power by reducing the independence of the judiciary. This has been repeated like a mantra, over and over again, even though independent experts and international organizations have welcomed these changes. Even the current Constitutional Court (which could hardly be accused of being the government’s best buddy) has stated that the proposed amendments will not violate the separation of powers that are so strongly embedded in the present Constitution. The second tactic is clearly to talk more about what is not included than what is included, maintaining that it should be an all-or-nothing approach -- again citing that the AKP has cherry picked only what is good for them. Unfortunately, the opposition continues to shoot itself in the foot because any legitimate concerns they have are drowned out by exaggerating on many other points.
I think that it is surprising how many well-educated Turks with an excellent knowledge of politics and history seem to swallow what the opposition parties tell them. The opposition is so intent on discrediting the AKP that they seem willing to put the brakes on the modernization of the country to achieve it. But again, this is not all that surprising as the majority of those opposed seem to have distinct liking for the “good old days” even though it is undeniable that for all the complaints about the AKP, Turkey became more prosperous and successful with an increasingly savvy foreign policy under them. Turkey’s opposition parties have also failed to create anything that resembles an even half-way decent opposition.
At the end of the day the majority of Turks will decide based on their political preference. According to public opinion polls only 5-10 percent of the population remains undecided. So while it seems the AKP is on track to win this round, it won’t be the end of the battle. However, if the CHP and others really want to prevent the AKP from yet another straight win in next year’s parliamentary elections, they really need to start to put more meat on their policies and spend less time on political trickery and name calling.
