I recently had a number of opportunities to listen to concerns about what is going to happen after Sept. 12. I was particularly impressed by the amount of interest shown by observers from other countries, some based as far away as Australia and Canada. It seems that not only are Turkey’s economic success story and its rapid increase in influence on the political stage a focus of attention for those interested in the country, but even Turkish domestic developments are making the headlines, and finally for all the right reasons! The most important reason I am talking about is “establishing an irreversible democracy.”
One recurring comment in these discussions -- most in person, one over the telephone and some online -- is about the speed at which Turkey is changing. I often reply by saying that in my personal opinion the concept of change -- and, in particular, understanding change as a friend rather than a foe -- is relatively new to this country, including its political, judicial and military hierarchies.
Hence, change must be explained. Drafting amendments to a constitution and one day adopting an entirely new civilian constitution is all about change.
One way of discussing what is going to happen after Sept. 12 is to ask not if, but when the government will be able to table a draft for a new, civilian constitution. Most observers seem to agree that although preparations should commence straight away, the fact that the current government is short of a two-thirds majority in Parliament most likely means that the country has to wait until after the next general elections, slated for July 2011.
This waiting period should, however, not be wasted, as four issues deserve the government’s utmost attention. First, how to prepare the electorate to fully appreciate the need for a new legal framework, free of any unwanted tutelage from any side. Taking the EU’s Maastricht Treaty, or the more recent Lisbon Treaty, into account, the electorate often confuses a referendum or debates about constitutional change with a general election. One mistake the Turkish government should not make -- although from a strategic party politics perspective, perhaps, it would be fully understandable -- is to treat the upcoming 12 months as a non-stop pre-election marathon. A more subtle approach toward engaging civil society in the constitution drafting process should come first.
Second, Turkey’s EU accession process must continue despite the fact that a new constitution would greatly facilitate further democratization in line with accepted universal and EU standards. If Turkey manages to be “EU ready” before the EU is “Ankara ready,” Turkey will not lose out, but the EU will continue to lose face!
Third, one way or another, a solution must be found to the ongoing Cyprus impasse.
These three issues may depend, of course, on other developments -- most notably, whether Turkey’s economy will continue its upward trend. Some factors lie beyond the reach of Turkey’s business community and its elected government, but many are homemade. It is reasonable to assume that if a serious economic downturn occurs between now and July 2011 any government would face a great challenge keeping voters happy.
Hence, and this is my fourth point, the key consideration for the present government -- and in the interest of the entire Turkish society, including, in particular, its emerging middle classes -- must be how to stimulate the economy while at the same time paving the way for more individual, unhindered entrepreneurial involvement.
Export promotion, reduced red tape, more financing for small and medium-sized enterprises and, in general terms, a further improvement toward producing high-end, “Turquality” goods seems to have so far paid off, but would benefit from even more pro-active support. Turkey’s economy already outperforms some of today’s (more recent) EU member states.
Explaining “change” as both necessary and positive, continuing on the road toward full EU membership, aiming at a solution to the division of Cyprus one way or another and focusing on a strong economy -- a mammoth set of tasks, but not an impossible one.
Is Turkey ready for a new constitution? Almost!
