The Kurds in particular expect to see a possible peace. The reason why they have high expectations is because of a recent statement from acting head of the PKK Murat Karayılan, who said: “[The] Turkish state has cut some kind of deal with Abdullah Öcalan. As a result, the PKK has declared a cease-fire.” Although some political observers argue that the statement does not reflect the truth, rather it is a political maneuver to negatively influence the upcoming referendum on Sept. 12, what Karayılan is saying may actually reflect the truth. It’s no longer a secret that the National Intelligence Organization (MIT) and the military have been in contact with Öcalan for over a decade during his imprisonment in order to cut a deal. Thus, it is plausible to suspect that there may be a secret deal with Öcalan for a cease-fire. Further, President Abdullah Gül implied that the government does not negotiate with terrorists, but there are state institutions that can facilitate negotiations. Moreover, the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) claimed that the director of MIT met with Öcalan in July.
Bringing all these pieces together indicates that there may have been contact between the PKK and state institutions facilitating this recent cease-fire. Now it is up to politicians to take further steps to maintain the peace. The PKK said a lasting cease-fire could be possible if Turkey halts its military operations, releases some 1,700 detained Kurdish politicians and starts peace negotiations with the separatist group and reduces the 10 percent threshold in the general elections. What the PKK expects from the government is to send a signal that would prepare the groundwork for possible negotiations. At the same time Öcalan clearly stated that he would not want to wait until the upcoming elections in 2011.
Under these circumstances, one can argue that it is not a very convenient time for the government to take radical steps for sustainable peace. What the government can do to prepare the ground, however, is to take easy steps such as reducing the 10 percent threshold as a gesture and releasing Kurdish politicians who were detained during the Kurdish Communities Union (KCK) operation last year.
It seems that Kurdish politicians are ready to accept the two steps as a big gesture. If the government takes such steps, it was declared that the PKK would withdraw its militants outside of Turkish borders. It would be a big step before the 2011 elections. Then an incoming government could continue further steps to bring the decades-old violence to an end.
The political risk for the government is relatively manageable. It is very likely that the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) would want to criticize the government if were to take these two steps by telling voters that the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government is negotiating with terrorists. Indeed it may negatively affect the government during the elections. Yet, on the other hand, it is a well known fact that the MHP exploits the outcome of the war, too. MHP supporters turn the funerals of fallen soldiers into big political rallies against the government which stir up public sentiment against the government and ordinary Kurds who live in Turkish metropolises as well.
Given the fact that the main opposition party CHP is also demanding a reduction in the 10 percent threshold, it is less risky for the government to reduce the threshold and promote it as a big step toward democratization. With this strategy the government could earn credit for promoting further democracy and achieving a lasting the peace that would set it as a peacemaker in the Kurdish region.
