On July 27 I underlined the following: “UN assistance would go a long way in helping the PKK to achieve their future objectives. The UN would also benefit, due to the PKK’s strong presence in the UN’s refugee camp in Makhmour, northern Iraq. [Abdullah] Öcalan and [Murat] Karayılan also point out that without support from the UN it is possible that the PKK militants could be withdrawn to Makhmour camp, which, at present, provides them with a safe haven. By including the UN as a cooperative partner, the PKK would have the opportunity to earn respect from an international organization that could afford them some legitimacy and help to ensure their success. Furthermore, bringing PKK militants under UN supervision would provide them with extra security.”
On Aug. 12 Taraf reported that the PKK is considering a unilateral cease-fire and withdrawing a significant number of its militants to a place to avoid clashes with the military. Local Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) politicians confirm the news. I have contacted some local BDP politicians who shared the expectations of the Kurdish public in the region. One of them told me that “it is very likely that by Aug. 15 the PKK would declare a ceasefire and a significant number of PKK militants may be withdrawn to a place to avoid clashes with the military.” When I asked whether Makhmour camp is an option for the PKK to withdraw its militants to, he said, “It is a very likely option.”
The reasons that BDP politicians give to explain why the PKK would make such a decision are, first, the public’s expectations, and second, the Sept. 12 referendum process that inflamed the hope for peace once again. As one politician told me: “The hope for peace is the last thing left in our hands. Without hope there is no meaning to living in this part of the country.” The PKK does not want to be an actor that destroys the last hope.
Thus, it is considering declaring a ceasefire and withdrawing some units outside of Turkey. The hope is so great that one of the politicians I spoke with told me that they are expecting that some of the imprisoned Kurdish Communities Union (KCK) members may be released before the Sept. 12 referendum, though I find it very unlikely because the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government has no authority over the courts. Especially courts in the Kurdish region, which are very sensitive when it comes to Kurdish nationalist movements versus the state’s struggle.
Second, PKK leaders, including Öcalan, are realizing that UN supervision could serve as de facto recognition for the PKK. There is no doubt that the PKK wants to lay down its weapons, but is unable to find a reliable partner to discuss the basics of the process. Further, the divided nature of power between the military and the civilian government in Turkey limits the PKK’s ability to choose one over the other. Therefore, as a third party partner the UN is considered one of the best ways out. Thus, Makhmour camp in northern Iraq is considered a good first step that neither the civilian government nor the military in Turkey could prevent the PKK from taking. In addition, sources in northern Iraq told me that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is sympathetic to the idea of bringing the PKK to the Makhmour camp.
All things considered, it is likely that the PKK will declare a cease-fire on Aug. 15 and withdraw some of its militants to the Makhmour camp.
