The judgment states that there are no provisions in international law restricting declarations of independence, such as that pronounced by Kosovo in February 2008. Therefore, Kosovo is neither abiding by international law nor in violation.The ICJ statements are not legally binding and individual states can interpret them as they wish. The court seems to have dodged the issue of the right of people to self-determination over the right of a sovereign state to territorial integrity, rather saying that Kosovo’s legitimacy will be granted by the countries that recognize it rather than by the ICJ. The result is likely to increase the number of countries (currently 69) that recognize Kosovo, particular once the ICJ opinion is presented at the UN General Assembly in September. Currently, five EU member states along with Russia, India, China, Brazil and a number of other heavy weights refuse to recognize. If recognition passes 100, this may provide new impetus for Kosovo’s development and integration with the international community.
Kosovar Prime Minister Hashim Thaci was in Washington when the news broke. The US is all important to Kosovo, having played a key role in its independence, and is seen in Pristina as a crucial player in the country’s future. Naturally, he was ecstatic about the result, announcing that it was now time for talks between Kosovo and Belgrade to begin.
Serbian President Boris Tadic repeated that Serbia would never recognize Kosovo because he believes that unilateral, ethnically motivated secession is not in accordance with the principles of the UN. Serbia was planning to demand new talks via the UN, but with the ICJ ruling so heavily in Kosovo’s favor, it is unclear what Belgrade will now do. However, as long as Serbia has Russia’s backing, it is likely Belgrade will be able to continue its campaign against Kosovo’s independence as well as its membership in international organizations. This in turn means that the delicate security in the Western Balkans remains at risk. Russia is key here and if Moscow is -- as it says it is -- ready to play a positive and helpful role in European security, Moscow could demonstrate it here by changing its position, thereby putting the security of the Western Balkans on a firm footing. Unfortunately, it is only likely to happen if the US is able to give Russia something tangible in return.
From an EU perspective, while EU Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton welcomed the decision, a number of member states continue to refuse to recognize Kosovo and it is unclear whether any one of them will change their position. Spain, Cyprus, Slovakia, Greece and Romania continue to hold up EU-wide recognition. Slovakia has said that the ICJ position changes nothing and Bratislava will continue to support UN resolution 1244, which backs a common solution through dialogue of both sides rather than a unilateral declaration of independence. While Romania fears that the result might encourage Romania’s Hungarian minority to demand autonomy, the Cypriot Foreign Ministry affirmed its “unwavering position of respect to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Serbia.”
The ruling may also embolden separatist movements, including in Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. If it’s possible for the Kosovar Albanians, why not for the Karabakh Armenians? They cite that their difficult history with Azerbaijan makes it impossible for them to live under any type of Azerbaijani rule. Not surprisingly, the unrecognized leadership of Karabakh enthusiastically welcomed the ICJ ruling while the secretary-general of European Friends of Armenia, Michael Kambeck, said: “Everybody who has ever been to Karabakh knows that the people there have been so traumatized, they only trust themselves. They would all rather defend their security with arms than trust anyone to govern them. The conflicting parties and the international players involved need to reflect these de facto and the new de jure aspects in their actions.”
However, international law is full of contradictions and double standards, so for all those, whether they are Karabakh Armenians, the Flemish, the Catalans or the Scotts, their dreams of “independence” are precisely that -- a dream. And this outcome will change nothing. Whether a region establishes itself on the international stage is fundamentally a political rather than a legal issue at root. Abkhazia and South Ossetia have only been recognized by Russia, Nicaragua and Nauru while Karabakh is recognized by no states at all, not even Armenia. In particular, without the backing of the US, they have nothing. It is political clout rather than international law that counts, and the chances that the US will ever recognize Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia or Abkhazia must be zero or thereabouts.
And while the Kosovars may cheer today, this result will change nothing on the ground -- at least in the short term, but maybe in the longer one, too. It will remain one of Europe’s poorest regions, submerged in a deep economic quagmire laden with corruption. Furthermore, as long as all EU member states fail to recognize it, there is no chance of Kosovo joining the club. Such a dream may be decades away.
As for Serbia, it may not like the decision, but it offers it an opportunity to move on. Kosovo is gone forever. Serbia’s future lies as a full member of the EU and it would do well to pick up the pace in its negotiations and focus on the serious business of reforms instead.
