The lack of progress has resulted in growing concerns from some circles that the EU is pushing Ankara away from the West. Last month US Defense Secretary Robert Gates accused the EU of “refusing to give Turkey the kind of organic link to the West that Turkey sought,” an argument that was later endorsed by Italy’s Foreign Minister Franco Frattini. While EU prefers the US not offer such advice, Washington has a point. Ongoing statements from France and Germany insisting that Turkey does not belong to Europe and should settle for a special partnership rather than full membership are unhelpful and will never be embraced by Ankara. The point is that the EU did offer Turkey full membership and they should honor this commitment. On the other side, Turkey asked for full membership and it should also do its fair share of the work.The recent visit of EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton and European Commissioner for Enlargement Stefan Füle to Turkey was supposed to reassure Ankara over its troubled membership bid. Ashton and Füle met with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and chief EU negotiator Egemen Bagis. At the joint press conference, Mrs. Ashton said that trust and friendship were the foundation of the relationship between Turkey and the EU given that both share the same goals for peace and prosperity. Very nice words, but then that is what this relationship is increasingly about -- words rather than actions.
So one visit by Ashton to Turkey and we are supposed to believe that everything will be ok? Perhaps I am being too cynical, but she will convince nobody working on this issue. While Mrs. Ashton’s comments are welcome, at the end of the day it is not her who will decide. It is the 27 member states (and at the very end the European Parliament). They are the ones taking part in the various council meetings and working groups and it is they who have the power to block or open a chapter. If even one country decides (for whatever reason) a chapter should not be opened, it won’t be. The French and the Greek Cypriots are already responsible for the blocking of numerous chapters. While the Greek Cypriots have legitimate reasons for their actions given Turkey’s ongoing failure to extend its customs union with the EU to the Republic of Cyprus, the French do not.
The European Commission does its best. It has always been a strong supporter of Turkey’s accession and tries to encourage both sides but it cannot force Turkey to meet benchmarks nor can it force the 27 members to open chapters. All the commissioners who have been responsible for Turkey have done a good job. However, with each one the task has become more difficult: Günter Verheugen was there during the “golden days” when Ankara met the Copenhagen Criteria and was accepted as a candidate country; Olli Rehn was the one who witnessed the start of souring of relations; and Füle is the one trying to flog a dead horse. Nobody should envy his task, and quite how he is going to find ways to accelerate the negotiations and “gear up” the admission process -- as he stated during the visit -- is a mystery to me.
Last month, talks began on the food safety chapter, bringing the total number of chapters Turkey has managed to open to 13 out of 35. At this rate, Turkey will open only one chapter per presidency, and even then the chapters will run out unless there is a solution to the Cyprus problem, which seems highly unlikely at the present juncture. Relations would enter a sort of “virtual” stage, which could last for years and might represent an unofficial end to Turkey’s EU bid. This would be tragic but unless some sort of miracle happens it is not inconceivable.
At the same time, Turkey and the EU will continue to cooperate in many different areas of mutual importance. Davutoglu would like to boost ties with the EU on regional policies, including Ankara having a role in EU foreign policy decision-making -- highly unlikely. While Ashton may have congratulated Turkey on its active foreign policy in and around its neighborhood, it seems that Davutoglu’s “zero problems with neighbors” approach is losing some of its luster in light of Turkey’s involvement in the Mavi Marmara incident, the failed rapprochement with Armenia and Turkey’s decision to vote against fresh UN sanctions on Iran over its controversial nuclear program. While Turkey insists it must remain involved in any future talks with Iran -- and there is concern that Iran will use Turkey as a precondition for talks to resume -- many in the West do not favor this. There is growing concerning that Turkey’s involvement only serves to water down the effect of the international community, but for Turkey and particularly Davutoğlu this is a matter of personal prestige.
Ashton’s and Fule’s visit was little more than an EU PR exercise and will change nothing. The truth is the EU has no appetite for Turkey and at the same time, with elections on the horizon, Erdoğan will do nothing that will endanger his popularity. The dead or almost dead horse will continue to be flogged.
