This will be the 12th time, so Brussels has a wealth of experience to put to use. On the first day of the presidency, a newsreader on a popular radio station announced very proudly that Belgium would be far more effective than Spain. The Spaniards, the newsreader said, had had too many grandiose and unrealistic ideas. The Belgians would be far more pragmatic. Belgian diplomats say they want to focus on supporting the work of EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton and European Council President Herman Van Rompuy rather than engaging in high-profile new initiatives. This is a clear dig at Spain, whose highly visible foreign policy activism produced few results. This made me laugh because back in January Belgium, together with the Spanish and Hungarians, (who will take over the presidency in January 2011), actually presented a joint program of objectives for their presidencies so that there would be some continuation. Seems like this idea did not quite work out.Belgium will continue to work on the enforcement of the Lisbon Treaty with the EU still undergoing something of a transitional period from the old way of doing things. One of Belgium’s key aims is to get in place the new institutional order, following the recent and somewhat chaotic shake-up. Belgium will work to have the legislative arrangements vis-a-vis the European Parliament in place by years end. The European Parliament now has the power of co-decision with the European Council in many different areas, meaning that the president of the European Council will have to negotiate with the European Parliament to reach common decisions in the first reading of legislative proposals.
Brussels will also have to deal with the ongoing financial crisis. Despite the many new initiatives of the Lisbon Treaty, it does not include measures to improve or strengthen economic governance (in retrospect this may have been an error), therefore Mr. Van Rompuy will have to take a lead here and continue to manage the crisis, including giving special attention to fiscal consolidation in order that each member state manages to reduce its budget deficit in a way compatible to a return to growth. The new Europe 2020 strategy launched earlier this year is part of this process.
On enlargement, something that Belgium overall continues to support, Brussels is keen to keep momentum in the negotiations with candidate countries Croatia and Turkey as well as keeping a close eye on progress being made with the other countries of the Western Balkans. However, while Croatia is reaching the end of its accession talks with entry into the EU foreseen within the next 24 months, Turkey’s relations with the EU have never been as uncertain as they are now. With only a handful of negotiating chapters left available, the talks may very soon enter a “limbo” phase. Therefore, it is not surprising that Belgium has made no grand gestures to Ankara concerning the number of chapters it hopes to open. Rather each of the forthcoming presidencies will likely only work towards one chapter each (providing Turkey manages to make sufficient efforts to meet the opening benchmarks), at least to keep the process moving forward. This is in total contrast to the Spanish, who promised to open four negotiating chapters with Turkey. In the end only one was opened, and even that was on the second day of the Belgian presidency.
On other foreign policy issues, Belgium’s main priority will be to support the launch of the European External Action Service (EEAS), which is expected to begin work toward the end of the year. It would seem that the European Parliament is in the final stages of reaching an agreement on this, so progress could be made later this month, allowing Mrs. Ashton to begin making nominations for key posts.
With the summer break upon us, the first major foreign policy event will take place only after the summer, when member states’ foreign ministers meet informally (Sept. 3-4). They should discuss the EU’s relations with emerging powers such as Brazil, China and India, and produce a strategy paper to guide heads of state who meet, together with the foreign ministers, two weeks later, on Sept. 16. That meeting is supposed to signal that the EU is back in the foreign policy business. Personally I will believe this when I see it, with many of the “big powers” still viewing the EU as being too inward looking, focusing on short-term policies for short-term gains. There will also be two other big summits during the Belgian presidency with African and Asian leaders, but neither involves the rotating presidency. These summits will be organized by the staff of Mrs. Ashton, not the Belgians.
The EU’s “new set” might still be a bit strange, with many people in the “EU bubble” (never mind outside it) having trouble understanding it. Maybe the Belgians will be the ones to get everything in place -- after all, it may be easier than dealing with their own domestic issues, including the continued insistence of the Flemish for independence.
