This type of competition should be positive, with the “stans” being the biggest winners of all if they play their cards right.Central Asia has for some time (around two centuries) been almost exclusively Russia's stomping ground.
Only in the 1990s did the US begin to boost its influence there -- principally to secure access for US companies to the oil and gas reserves that were starting to be discovered. This influence also increased following the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, when the US turned to military cooperation as it set up airbases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. The region was a useful gateway into Afghanistan and was also thought to be susceptible to the same sort of radical Islamism that plagued the country. While Russia remains top dog, at the same time the geopolitical environment of the region is becoming increasingly complex and as a result the traditional hegemony of Moscow has started to be eroded.
While US President Barack Obama's “reset” with Moscow has to a certain degree begun to roll back the US presence, China has begun to up its game and the country is slowly emerging as an increasingly serious regional and global player. This was not the case before when China was weak, occupied by domestic politics and focused on building a strong and resilient national power. With this objective now achieved, Beijing is branching out. While China still considers Asia and Southeast Asia to be its foreign policy priority, Beijing wants to slowly increase its influence in Central Asia for a number of reasons. China wants to stabilize and secure China's western border (including the turbulent region of Xinjiang) while at the same time meet the country's increasingly heavy energy needs.
China wants a stable security environment to facilitate the fight against separatism and extremism and to this end China has been carrying out quiet diplomacy on issues such as delineating borders and gaining cooperation on closing down networks of groups which they believe to be “troublemakers,” including Uyghurs, a Turkic people who were apparently using Central Asia as a base for anti-Beijing activities.
Developing further links to Central Asia as an alternative source of oil and gas is also crucial for China and this objective has assumed greater significance in Chinese strategic thinking in light of tensions and problems in relations with Russia on energy. Beijing has already gone some way in this respect. Earlier this year a west-east pipeline from Xinjiang to eastern China began transporting Turkmen gas to energy-hungry Chinese consumers. While it has taken the EU more than 12 years to do little more than talk about the great Nabucco gas pipeline, the Chinese have designed, found gas, built and started to pump in around three years. Pretty impressive stuff. The pipeline runs more than 8,000 kilometers, spanning more than 14 provinces and special administrative regions, including Shanghai and Hong Kong and marks a significant milestone in China's energy strategy.
Furthermore, the opening of a west-east gas route showcases China's impressive entry into a battle previously dominated by Russia and the West over access to the region's natural resources. It is also an indicator of Beijing's increasingly confident foreign policy, and its growing ties and interest in the states of the former Soviet Union.
It seems that China wants to softly erode Russian economic influence. Energy is the best example since it both ends Russia's near-monopoly on, for example, Turkmen gas and, in doing so, increases Central Asian independence. Furthermore, with a better understanding of “the game” Central Asian leaders have been able to get better deals for their resources by playing one superpower off against another. As Central Asian energy exporters increasingly diversify their export markets, the leverage anyone has over them will decrease, which is good news for the “stans.”
Furthermore, China is getting a reputation as a serious money lender, having given loans of some $10 billion to Kazakhstan, $4 billion to Turkmenistan and more than $630 million to Tajikistan. This money comes without World Bank-style conditions or the high interest returns offered by Moscow.
Not surprisingly Russia is not keen on this intrusion into its backyard, and so far the Chinese have been careful not to overly tread on Moscow's toes too much. While the Chinese developments are still in their early days it will be interesting to see how far and how fast China is ready to go. However, in the end, the winners will not be Russia or even China, but the Central Asian countries themselves since increased competition offers more choices and thus bolsters Central Asia's independence.
