Turkey used to be what is described in the US as a “throwaway friend” -- a nation that could be relied on to almost always follow the West’s policy even if it was not always in its interest. While there were some differences and minor upsets over the decades, following the end of World War II, these were few and far between, and overall Turkey’s loyalty was without question. Nowadays Turkey has woken up from this “foreign policy slumber” and is no longer content to put all its eggs in one basket. This shake-up has caused waves, unsettling the trans-Atlantic community which, according to the report, has the potential to make Turkey either a valuable asset or an uncertain partner. Turkey’s increasingly tight ties with the Middle East and Muslim world -- where Turkey has taken advantage of a “gap in the market” as the US became increasingly discredited and the EU simply could never get its act together -- as well as the upgrading of relations with Russia seem to be of particular concern. There is fear that Turkey is drifting away from secularism and toward Islamism. Because the Justice and Development Party (AKP) is frequently still viewed as Islamist we are led to believe they wish to “Islamisize” Turkey by these increasingly close ties to the Muslim world and, as viewed by some, over-friendly relations with Iran. But while some eyebrows remain raised, Turkey has done well. The new strategic cooperation councils with countries such as Syria and Iraq have already put cash into Turkey’s coffers. The free visa regime with Syria has dramatically increased cross-border trade making it a win-win for both nations. Each country views the other with less suspicion, and this trend is set to increase. Turkey is probably carrying out the kind of neighborhood policy -- and reaping the results -- the EU would like to if it could actually work out what sort of relationship it wants to have with its neighbors. With Russia, too, the end of visa requirements should allow Turkey to increase its investments in Russia as well as receiving an increasingly high number of tourists. And other countries like Turkey’s style. Ukraine has been so impressed that an increasing number of officials from Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry are visiting Ankara to learn from Turkey on a whole range of different areas.Yes, there are tragedies. The deterioration of Turkish relations with Israel is the most obvious. Earlier this week I met an official from Israel’s Foreign Ministry who expressed great sadness at Turkey’s apparent new policy towards his country, citing what he described as the openly biased behavior of some Turkish officials over the last few years. While Israel despises Turkey’s relations with Hamas and with Iran, the country nevertheless acknowledges the increasingly important role that Turkey is playing in this region, although Turkey needs to continue to be viewed as representing universal norms and principles and not something else. There are also regions where Turkey is not really moving. Central Asia for example. Something of a Russian “stronghold,” Turkey needs to watch its step with Moscow. Furthermore, the last time Turkey attempted to exert its influence here -- under President Turgut Özal -- it backfired. While they may be Turkic peoples historically, the influence of the Soviet Union is still a predominant force in most of these nations, which are frequently more comfortable speaking Russian than their own tongue and links with the Kremlin remain strong. And, of course, there is China, which is becoming an increasingly important player, although even the Chinese are cautious not to overstep the line with Russia. So while Turkey may still have a foothold in some areas -- construction -- it is highly unlikely that Turkey’s influence here will increase much.
Overall, concern is exaggerated. While Turkey’s foreign policy has undergone a dramatic transformation, this is principally due to the changing geopolitical and security situation in Turkey’s neighborhood as well as Turkey’s changing domestic situation. Indeed, Turkey’s new policy has become far more European: no more brinkmanship, threats and aggression. Rather Turkey has turned to the softly-softly approach pursuing strategic cooperation thereby creating trade and investment opportunities in its neighborhood and beyond, which in turn is leading to increasingly warm political ties.
While Turkey is an increasingly strong force in its neighborhood, it also needs to continue its domestic transformation -- and the best way to do this is by remaining strongly anchored to the EU. There is no other way. And if the West -- particularly the EU -- is so concerned about losing Turkey then they should do something about it rather than continue to send out negative vibes over Turkish membership. Turkey and the Ottoman Empire before it have always been Westward looking. There should be no fear of losing Turkey. Turkey is able to have good relations with the West and other important partners. To coin an American phrase, “Turkey can chew gum and walk at the same time!”
