If this report is true, then Israel has already decided to punish Iran if the latter doesn’t respect the UN Security Council’s latest resolution. Israel probably has a strategy in mind aiming at destroying Iran’s military capabilities once and for all. However, if Israel puts into practice these plans, every country in the region will suffer because of it.Should Israel carry out the first strike, Iran’s response would be legitimate, and Israel will find itself once again outside the limits of international law. Besides, this initiative’s military success will not really count as its political outcome will not be in Israel’s favor. Iran, which is a country far from having clean hands, will all of a sudden appear as a victim, a position that would provide it with enormous diplomatic credit. The civilian deaths caused by such an operation and the rhetoric that would derive from the people’s grief would put Israel in trouble for many years to come. So, Israel can eradicate Iran’s nuclear capabilities, but this wouldn’t increase Israel’s ability to survive one iota.
In fact, this report’s most critical aspect is Saudi Arabia. No one knows what this introverted country’s policies really are regarding Gaza, Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan or Kyrgyzstan. If Saudi Arabia is opening its airspace to Israel without a problem, this would mean that these two countries have a strategic relationship. It is true that they were allies during the Cold War era; they fought together against the spread of communism in the Middle East and so on. However, that’s water under the bridge now.
Helping Israel hit Iran is a reflection of the “my enemy’s enemy is my friend” policy. From a historical point of view, it’s no secret that Iran and Saudi Arabia are rival regional powers. However, great powers are no longer happy with Saudi Arabia’s manipulations in the Middle East and Central Asia, either. The antagonism between the Saudis and Iran is the main reason for the Shia-Sunni divide in the region, and the fight between these groups’ legal and illegal representatives is one of the reasons for international terrorism. When you add the economic rivalry over natural gas and oil to that list, one can even claim that the region’s major conflict is not between Israel and Iran but between the latter and Saudi Arabia.
The Israeli government’s eventual decision to launch an attack on Iran will be self-destructive for the sake of serving Saudi interests. Nevertheless, the permanent members of the UN Security Council, along with the other members of the G-20 forum, are as against Saudi Arabia’s ambitions as they are against Iran’s. Saudi Arabia and Iran, thanks to their military capabilities and geographical positions, had protected the US and Russia’s interests during the Cold War, but this has forged a genuine antagonism between these two Middle Eastern powers, exacerbated by their rival religious regimes, which support extremist movements all over the region. Today, Russia and the US have decided to act together, and they notice that these regimes’ activities are no longer useful. That’s why they put pressure on Israel through Turkey and on Saudi Arabia through Israel. However, because of its current policies, Israel appears as the player most exposed in this configuration.
