They also claim that Turkey’s links with the US and the EU are weakening. Maybe the real intention of these commentators is to neutralize Turkey’s Middle East policy, which is sustained by Turkey’s Western links. In addition, some people in Turkey, especially among the hawkish opposition circles that want to get rid of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) no matter what, are eager to advertise these views on the domestic political scene.It’s probably more meaningful to discuss whether the UN’s new sanctions will succeed in making Iran a docile country. Actually, Iran has no intention of opening itself up to the foreign world, of establishing friendly relations with great powers, of respecting human rights and eschewing arms. The sanctions serve to consolidate its intransigent policies more than anything else. Even the opposition movement against Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, known as the “Greens,” may choose to support their government against foreign enemies from now on. In other words, some Western countries that seem so willing to reinforce the Iranian opposition are also those who damage these movements.
If Iran adopts a more hard-line stance, then Israel may have an excuse for its own harsh policies. However, this wouldn’t be compatible with the Middle East’s current trends at a time when the US, other Western powers and even Russia want the establishment of free trade areas in order to guarantee the region’s stability. For these actors, the problem that counts is in Afghanistan and Pakistan, so they don’t want to waste their energy elsewhere.
However, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), the current Israeli government and the Ahmedinejad administration obstruct every effort at stabilization, thus a punishment-reward mechanism has been put in place for them. The impression may be that the UN Security Council turns a blind eye to Israel’s actions, but one mustn’t forget that this country was denounced in a declaration and that international pressure is growing stronger against the Gaza blockade. As for the PKK, Turkey and the northern Iraqi leader Massoud Barzani came an agreement and just after the latter’s visit to Ankara, and a Turkish military operation was launched in northern Iraq.
Regarding Iran, the Tehran regime has been punished up until now, so maybe it’s time to half open the door for rewards. It is Turkey and Brazil’s efforts at dialogue that would open that door. The already-existing sanctions on Iran were frequently ignored by some countries including those who voted in their favor. The new sanctions are also a warning for those who maintain their economic relations with Iran. In brief, it is uncertain whether it is Iran or the countries which maintain their ties that will be punished by the new sanctions. The growing pressure on Iran is also a message conveyed to Israel: “We are taking care of Iran; use this opportunity to change yourself,” and in order to prevent Iran from making a crazy move, Turkey and Brazil are called upon to play the role of appeasers.
Turkey has explained that its “no” is motivated by the desire to maintain its engagements resulting from the swap agreement. Perhaps this gesture will act as a reminder that there are other texts that bear Turkey’s signature, such as the Armenian protocols. Then, the “region of stability” may expand even more. However, Iran must make good use of this opportunity in order to make this “no” useful.
