The sense of outrage shows no sign of abating in Turkey nor, indeed, in the rest of the world. The attack against the aid flotilla has turned the spotlight onto the Gaza blockade. In many Western countries that had turned a blind eye until now, the tide of public opinion is turning, and calls for the embargo on Gaza to be lifted are growing more vocal, even if Washington appears not to have strayed far from its traditional line until now.The forceful statements made by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and other Justice and Development Party (AK Party) leaders in recent days have raised popular expectations that Turkey can change the status quo in the region. Managing these expectations in the coming weeks and months will not be easy: Many skilled negotiators have found the Middle East conflict an insurmountable challenge. Decades of Israeli pressure, with the implicit backing of the Western community which chose to shun Hamas when it won the Palestinian elections in 2006, have had a divisive impact on the Palestinians. Israel hoped the embargo would convince Gaza residents to turn against Hamas, which gained control of the strip after a fierce battle with its Fatah rivals in 2007, but the organization remains firmly in control.
The Turkish government has yet to announce what specific measures will be taken against Israel, although Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu has already signaled that relations would not return to normal as long as the restrictions on Gaza remain in place. There was always a third partner in Turkey’s relationship with Israel: Damage to bilateral relations also means damage to the other section of the triangle, the Turkey-US angle. Ankara needs to proceed with caution and make good use of the momentum of world public opinion, which is now turning against the Gaza blockade.
This latest Israeli operation, coming on top of other PR fiascos -- the more recent being the February assassination of a Hamas leader in Dubai, widely attributed to Mossad and carried out by usurping the identities of real people, mostly European -- leaves the Netanyahu government increasingly isolated. Israel’s talented spin masters have not succeeded in imposing their version of events: Turkey and the aid activists have clearly captured the moral high ground.
But now is neither the time to gloat nor to revel in the deaths of activists, as some appear to be doing. The leadership role that Turkey has now assumed brings new responsibilities along with the increased profile. Prime Minister Erdoğan wisely pointed out that Turkey has no quarrel with the Israeli population; it only objects to its government’s strategy. But the hard-liners were carried to power by the fears -- exaggerated but not entirely unfounded -- of Israeli voters.
While the Goldstone report into the Gaza offensive of December 2008-January 2009 harshly condemned Israel’s overwhelming use of force and the impact it had on civilians, it also admitted that “the rocket and mortars attacks, launched by Palestinian armed groups operating from Gaza, have caused terror in the affected communities of southern Israel.” Calling on Israel to respect international law, the report also asked Palestinian groups to grant Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier captured four years ago, prisoner-of-war status under the Third Geneva Convention.
After this latest debacle, voices within Israel calling for new policies have grown louder. For this view to gain wide acceptance, the Israeli population needs to see that its government is not protecting but undermining its security by “refusing to acknowledge the futility of resorting to violent means and military power,” as the Goldstone report described.
This is where Turkish diplomacy could make a difference: Unlike most Western nations, which have so far refused to engage with Hamas, Ankara has developed ties with the organization as well as the Palestinian authorities. While maintaining pressure on Israel, Turkey could play a constructive role talking to Hamas. Now that world opinion is turning in their favor, Palestinian groups in Gaza should seek to allay the Israelis’ fears and signal their willingness to cooperate and provide security guarantees if the embargo is lifted, as a first step toward dialogue.
