The party’s secret leader, Önder Sav, secured his position on the new MYK, to which politicians famous for their neo-nationalist stance were added as new members. The biggest surprise in the composition of the new MYK was that Gürsel Tekin, the head of the CHP’s local organization in İstanbul, was left out although he is known to be very close to Kılıçdaroğlu and his rhetoric appeals to the general public.After the foregoing up-to-date information, I will try to analyze the political future of Kılıçdaroğlu, who has recently grown to be a widely debated phenomenon in Turkish politics. Although he is a politician of low caliber, lacking any trace of charisma, which is considered a must for a political career, Kılıçdaroğlu has become the center of attention, which the right and liberal wing fails to appreciate properly. Perhaps, the high public interest in the relatively obscure personality of Kılıçdaroğlu can partially be attributed to exhaustion or a sense of weariness with regard to charismatic leaders such as Baykal and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Or one might even suggest that if the secular/leftist groups had not agreed on Kılıçdaroğlu, but a more obscure politician, this politician would have garnered the same amount of attention.
For two weeks, I have been closely monitoring Kılıçdaroğlu’s actions and remarks. I must say that I fail to see a high-profile political leader in him. I also do not think his supporters see much charisma or leadership potential in him. Then, why is there such great interest in him? I think, in order to make sense of this increased interest, we should concentrate less on political leadership and his nonexistent charisma and more on the mood of the masses which the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) has been unable to satisfy despite its efforts during the last eight years, and the opposition to the AK Party that has been simmering for various reasons.
No one can say that Kılıçdaroğlu is failing to comply with his duty of uniting the AK Party’s opponents. Indeed, although he has stuffed the Party Council and the MYK with neo-nationalists and pro-Ergenekon figures and banished those who are close to the general public from the party’s management, he is still able to give popular messages such as criticizing the military coup of May 27, 1960, the post-modern coup of Feb. 28, 1997 and the e-memorandum of April 27, 2007. He has, it seems, realized that empty populist discourse is a good weapon in politics if one can use it as Süleyman Demirel did for many years. So he has achieved a level of populism that would make Demirel jealous.
Of course, this does not prevent us from realizing that a sizable group of people who are tired of, and most importantly, against the AK Party’s eight years in office are blowing wind into Kılıçdaroğlu’s sails. Despite his visibly low caliber, he is quickly becoming a locus for those discontented with the existing government. Obviously, his supporters do not invest great hopes in him or trust him much. But as he was used as a lever to get rid of Baykal, the same political engineers and the same groups may see him as a lever to get rid of Erdoğan.
Given the latest poll by the Ankara-based MetroPOLL Strategic and Social Research Center, a majority of people do not believe that Kılıçdaroğlu is able to find solutions to the basic issues. The number of those who replied positively to the question, “Can the Kılıçdaroğlu-led CHP solve the Kurdish issue?” was only 26.3 percent, while the rate of those who said “yes” to the question, “Can the Kılıçdaroğlu-led CHP solve the headscarf issue?” was 28.4 percent, which was also the case with the question, “Can the Kılıçdaroğlu-led CHP solve the unemployment issue?” This clearly indicates that the increased interest in Kılıçdaroğlu is not directly related to the hopes invested in him. Still, for some reason, voters do not deny him support as high as 30 percent that they used to deny Baykal during his political career. The reasons for this support and the social psychology behind it, should be analyzed correctly by everyone, particularly including the AK Party executives because those who underestimate the social support behind Kılıçdaroğlu based on his personal lack of ability will have the biggest shock.
Voters who are more tired of Baykal than the AK Party believe that Kılıçdaroğlu will make a more successful opposition leader, with a rate of 56.8 percent. With the same justification, 63.6 percent approve of Kılıçdaroğlu purging the party of executives who are close to Baykal. A total of 68.9 percent of the people believe Kılıçdaroğlu will be able to boost the CHP’s votes, which is already evidenced in this poll. Some 53.9 percent further believe that he can change the CHP, while 54.9 percent are of the opinion that the Kılıçdaroğlu-led CHP can unite the leftist parties. The fact that Erdoğan, who is the most trusted political party leader, with 38.4 percent, is followed by Kılıçdaroğlu with 23.6 percent, and Devlet Bahçeli with 4.4 percent is proof that he should be considered a serious contender. In the list of the most popular living Turkish politicians and statesmen, Kılıçdaroğlu ranks second together with President Abdullah Gül after Erdoğan, who had a share of 23.5 percent.
To cut a long story short, in spite of all the personal inadequacies and shortcomings that necessitated a proper political leader, it does not matter whether you attribute the interest in him to the effect created by the media or the strange irony of fate or the leftists’ boredom with Baykal or the increasing opposition of some groups to the AK Party. Kılıçdaroğlu, who has visibly boosted support for the CHP, deserves to be treated as a serious rival.
