The rhetoric so far remains quite familiar, but the new CHP leader has signaled that he will focus more on unemployment and poverty. His predecessor preferred to play the regime card, but his repeated warnings that secularism was under threat only struck a chord with a limited segment of the society, recent election results showed.“It’s the economy, stupid,” was a slogan widely used in the US during the Clinton years, but it has now entered the political lexicon worldwide and has lost none of its relevance in today’s uncertain global economic climate. As the polls scheduled for July next year approach, it will probably also resonate loudly with the Turkish electorate.
The OECD has just praised the Turkish government’s cautious management of the recent downturn and is predicting robust growth this year. But the international body has also warned that unemployment, already high at 14.4 percent, would rise further. Turkey is not the only country plagued with joblessness -- in fact, most developed economies have seen figures creep up in recent years. But with a newly energized opposition apparently set to capitalize on economic dissatisfaction, the ruling party cannot afford to be complacent.
One of the most shocking findings of the social inequality survey unveiled a few days ago by Professor Ersin Kalaycıoğlu and Ali Çarkoğlu of Sabanci University is that 40 percent of voting-age Turks have never worked. Women probably account for an important share of this socially excluded segment of society, but unemployment is clearly a problem that directly or indirectly affects a wide swathe of the population. The poll suggests that 92 percent of Turks find income discrepancies too wide in society and 90 percent of people believe it is the government’s job to narrow the gap.
In the lead-up to an election, opposition parties are not expected to prove they can do a better job than the existing government: Any claims to that effect can only be tested if and when a new party comes to power. All they need to do is to convince the electorate that the incumbent government is responsible for the unsatisfactory situation, even if external factors played a major role.
Another important fact that emerges from the survey mentioned above is that most Turks see education as the single most important factor determining an individual’s chances of success.
The Turkish Constitution promises primary education free of charge to all citizens, but in reality even in state primary schools parents are constantly solicited for contributions because the schools’ insufficient budget often does not allow them to cover their overheads.
A study conducted by the Turkish Education Association (TED), which runs private schools across the country, has highlighted the anomalies and injustice of a system based on exams that are so disconnected from the official curriculum that dersane, the crammer schools whose only purpose is to prepare students for tests, have trebled in numbers in the past decade and now outnumber official high schools by 4,193 to 3,357.
Not only does this system place enormous pressure on the pupils -- 44 percent of pupils in grades six, seven and eight spend more than 10 hours a week in a dersane; by the 12th grade, 43 percent spend three to four hours a day preparing for exams, sometimes playing hooky to do so -- but it also makes it almost much harder for students from poor families to compete and therefore causes inequality to become entrenched in society.
The good news is that the government is preparing to launch a new strategy to tackle unemployment. A new body will also be formed to promote women’s labor force participation and reduce the gaping gender divide in the workplace.
But in the coming months, the ruling party will probably face greater challenges from the opposition, particularly on social and economic issues. Although the government has taken successful steps in foreign policy and other areas, what really matters to the voters are issues closer to home, such as how much change they have in their pocket.
