In all likelihood, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the former parliamentary group chairman of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), will be elected as the new head of the beleaguered party, which has failed to offer a serious challenge to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) in the last two national elections.What does that mean for the CHP and for the Turkish political landscape? Can he lead the party to a victory in the upcoming national elections in 2011? Can he overcome opposition within party? Can he deliver structural changes to the party policy, which has often been criticized for being out of touch with the electorate? Can he bring the party out from the cold when it comes to sour relations with the West, especially the European Union and the United States?
If we are to take a hint from the remarks the upcoming leader has made in the last couple of days, it is hard to anticipate any changes in the way the CHP approaches major policies. It may even be worse. Judging from all the wheeling and dealing among party strongmen behind closed doors, many in Turkey seem convinced that political bickering is laying the ground for major confrontations within the party. Kılıçdaroğlu, a low-key politician who has no pull at the grassroots level of the party or with influential members of the party rank-and-file, is a name of compromise and will be a “caretaker” until a strong name comes forward to rein in major disagreements among warring internal factions.
Don’t forget, the bitterness of betrayal felt deeply by veteran politician Baykal may come back to haunt the CHP as well. He has done this in the past on two occasions after leaving the party. This time he may find it harder to prove he is “the comeback kid,” but that will not prevent him from attempting to exact revenge for disloyalty. In the meantime, many other parties on the left of the political spectrum will try to use the disarray within the CHP to their own advantage.
All in all, the CHP has a challenge that is not easy to face. While the party is getting a facelift, a key question remains: Will the body and the engine be overhauled as well? All indicators point to more of the same as the leadership team and structural policies will likely be kept intact. The comments Kılıçdaroğlu has been making over the last couple of days are full of anti-European Union rhetoric. He was quoted as saying on TV that he will crisscross the country telling of and explaining the EU’s double standards to the public. He said Turkish foreign policy should steer more toward Russia, China and India while calling for a “one minute” pause on relations with the EU.
The first serious test Kılıçdaroğlu will have to take will be seen during the convention over candidate lists. We know that he will keep most of those who were running the party for some time under Baykal’s leadership as part of the deal he made to secure their support.
Secondly, we need to see if he will be able to relax undemocratic party bylaws. For example, the current CHP bylaws call for block ballots, meaning only the party leader can submit the list of names for the influential 80-member Party Council. Delegates, numbering over 1,000, have no say in the revision of this list during the vote in the convention.
Considering all these issues, I see little room to maneuver in the CHP under Kılıçdaroğlu’s leadership. He may tweak the party’s approval ratings a couple of points upward, but he lacks the mandate to reach out to the groups that feel disenfranchised by the CHP’s rigid top-down policies. Though the CHP is member of the Socialist International and supposedly espouses socialist values, it failed to give its support to changes in Parliament that would have secured more democracy, enhanced freedoms and resulted in better protection of human rights.
The CHP in the past took the ombudsman law to the Constitutional Court and succeeded in overturning it. It had the court annul another law allowing military staff to be tried in civilian courts for major offenses such as coups. It launched major campaigns against government initiatives to provide more rights for ethnically Kurdish citizens and address the grievances of groups that are discriminated against, such as non-Muslim minorities, Alevis and the Roma. It even opposed the recent constitutional amendments that would allow individuals to petition the Constitutional Court on human rights violations. Kılıçdaroğlu’s first message to the citizens visiting him in Parliament on Thursday was to vote against reforms that will be submitted to a public referendum in September.
Under these conditions, I wonder how he will be able to steer the party toward the values of the Socialist International, not only in name but also in actions as well. Baykal argued that the CHP is in favor of the EU candidacy but instructed his deputies to vote against laws that would align the country’s legislation with the EU acquis when they came down to the floor for a vote. He opposed changing parliamentary bylaws to swiftly approve voluminous laws such as commercial laws or the obligations code, which have nothing to do with ideology. The opposition’s stance has been hurting Turkey economically as the business community -- domestic and international -- has suffered from delayed structural reforms addressing their grievances.
I sincerely hope Kılıçdaroğlu’s CHP will be able to fare much better for the sake of country’s future and start working with the government on much-needed reforms this country deserves. I am already crossing my fingers.
