In the past elections have always been pretty straightforward affairs. Either the Conservatives or Labour had a clear victory, and the Liberal Democrats came in third. With this crazy “first past the post” electoral system, reform is probably just as much an urgency in the UK as it is in Turkey.At the time of writing this article Gordon Brown had “sacrificed” himself for the sake of the Labour Party in the hope that the Liberal Democrat leader, Nicholas Clegg, can be wooed into a coalition with the idea of a “Gordon free” Labour, even though Gordon will not be packing his suitcase quite yet. He will still be leading the party for the next few months including negotiating any deal with Clegg and setting out the new budget, which he feels he is best placed to do. It is also unclear who will step into Gordon’s shoes, although present Foreign Minister David Milliband’s name is being thrown around along with his brother Ed and colleague Ed Balls. Indeed all three are intelligent, dynamic and youthful with great political futures ahead of them.
On paper Labour and the LibDems have more in common, and now that Gordon is on his way out a coalition looks more likely. However, it is also still very possible the LibDems will still decide to get into bed with David Cameron’s Conservatives. It is a very difficult choice for Clegg. A coalition with the Conservatives could be welcomed by the public given the fact that Labour came in second behind the Conservatives and thereby a deal with Labour could be perceived as a coalition of losers.
Clegg has always said that the party with the biggest number of seats should be the one forming the new government. Additionally a coalition with the Conservatives would have a much stronger majority whereas a coalition with Labour would be wafer thin, which may leave them looking for the votes of nationalist parties, which would hardly be an ideal scenario, and in this situation another election may just be around the corner.
However, because Labour is so desperate to stay in power it seems to be ready to offer the “moon and the stars” to Clegg including real prospects for electoral reform with a move to a system based on proportional representation very likely. This is a very tempting offer for Clegg because he has always cited it as one of his top priorities, and until now the Conservatives have not matched Labour’s offer.
Furthermore, in a deal with Labour the LibDems would definitely get seats in the new Cabinet, which is also a very attractive prospect for Clegg and friends. Clegg will likely go into tough talks with Labour in order to push the Conservatives to up the ante. In other words play them off each other for his own maximum gain. After all there are no other options on the table. They both need Clegg. His party may have disappointingly lost seats, but nevertheless he is still the kingmaker. He may never have such an opportunity again, and if the proportional representation bears fruit, the LibDems will find themselves in a very nice place indeed.
But when the dust finally settles and the new prime minister moves into 10 Downing Street, one thing that is already clear is that the new government is going to have to make a lot of cutbacks and certainly be more cost effective than the previous one. The new prime minister will find an overflowing in-tray on his new Downing Street desk. The UK presently has a huge budget deficit of around 12 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), which must be reduced as a top priority over the next couple of years. By implication this will mean big cuts in public spending, which may well target foreign policy spending and could result in the UK’s global role, for example its missions in Afghanistan (where the UK has the second biggest contingent after the US), etc., being seriously cut back in order to save cash. While the UK has always tried to be a leading international player since 1945, it simply cannot afford the price tag any longer.
The next few weeks are going to be exciting, and the stage seems set for politics in Britain being turned on its head -- and about time, too.
