It came as a surprise to the Greek Cypriots that the European Commission took advantage of the new provisions under the Lisbon Treaty to try and breathe fresh life into the Direct Trade Regulation. The regulation, which was first proposed six years ago as part of a package to help ease the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots, has been blocked ever since by the Greek Cypriots, who view it as a first step towards recognition of the “TRNC” -- the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. Indeed the Greek Cypriots were under the impression that the commission had understood their legal arguments and had decided to “let sleeping dogs lie” so to speak. In fact they believe the commission should take a leaf out of the UN’s book and only keep proposals on the table for a maximum of two years. If they are not implemented they should be scrapped. The Direct Trade Regulation is a highly emotional issue for Greek Cypriots because they see it as being solely politically motivated given the fact that the Turkish Cypriots may export their produce from ports in the south of the island quite freely. Thereby Greek Cypriots deeply resent that the EU keeps bringing this issue back onto the agenda. Indeed the official I spoke to became rather emotional declaring: “Cyprus is my country, my land, my future. … Other EU member states have no right to try to enforce such a thing onto us.” He strongly believed that if the Direct Trade Regulation were ever to become functional it would be the beginning of the end for a one-state solution.There is now a massive Greek Cypriot offensive underway in the European Parliament to prevent the regulation from going to the International Trade Committee with the Greek Cypriots continuing to challenge the legal base. It will now probably be up to the Conference of Presidents (the heads of all the political groups) to decide which committee it should go to. The Greek Cypriots are lobbying hard, which does not make them very popular because they are seen firstly as challenging the competency of the European Parliament and secondly of this particular committee. But being unpopular is not something that concerns them too much. If by some chance the process goes through and the regulation moves on to the European Council, I have been assured that it will not be a problem for the Greek Cypriots to achieve a blocking minority. In fact, according to this official, they have already secured it -- more than likely with the assistance of those countries (at least six) that are opposed to Turkey’s EU membership. The non-resolution of Cyprus-related issues means Turkey can never join. And even if the regulation were to be implemented, the Greek Cypriots would challenge the decision in the International Court of Justice because they continue to claim that the use of any port on the island needs to have the explicit agreement of the sovereign leadership of the Republic of Cyprus. We can conclude that this fight is far from over and the Greek Cypriots are ready to go “all the way.” So far this regulation has been a curse which has helped no party: Turkish Cypriots have felt let down by the EU failing to deliver on its promises; the Greek Cypriots feel betrayed and have made themselves a highly irritating EU member; Turkey has had eight chapters frozen (possibly more to come); and the EU has portrayed itself as a biased and untrustworthy partner. Whose idea was it again?
On the election of Eroğlu, the Greek Cypriots are taking a wait and see attitude. They believe his success was down to the Turkish military, which they claim carried out a very successful election campaign on behalf of Mr. Eroğlu. A large number of the some 35,000 Turkish troops which are stationed in the north targeted villages where the majority of Turkish settlers live and convinced them to vote for Eroğlu. This has been confirmed by the breakdown of the election results, which clearly show that in the regions where the majority of Turkish settlers reside, the majority voted for Eroğlu. And while Greek Cypriots continue to believe that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan supports a solution and without a doubt backed the campaign of Mehmet Ali Talat, they believe he could have done more but was stopped by the military, which they insist Erdoğan made a deal with during the last Turkish constitutional crisis, when he promised them the last word on Cyprus-related issues. Whether or not this is true, I don’t know. I only know that the Greek Cypriots see the Turkish military as untrustworthy aggressors. While the peace talks are due to be resumed in the next few weeks, the Greek Cypriots are adamant they must be resumed in accordance with the already agreed parameters. What is clear, however, is that with Eroğlu having a strong history of supporting a two-state solution, the Greek Cypriots are not too optimistic about the outcome of the talks. But then again, is anybody?
