The agreement is in direct violation of the Ukrainian constitution, which states that it is forbidden to have foreign military bases on Ukrainian territory. But in Ukraine there seems to be little regard for the constitution. Furthermore, just two months into his presidency, Yanukovych has succeeded in polarizing the nation and substantially reducing his popularity. Indeed if a new election were to be held tomorrow, it is unlikely he would come out the winner.During his election campaign President Yanukovych pledged to “smooth over” relations with Russia, which had become very antagonistic under his predecessor, Viktor Yuschenko. Clearly this deal may have taken the “smoothing over” a bit too far. However, for the Russians it is very sweet indeed. Moscow has achieved one of its crucial long-term strategic goals -- to keep a military presence in Ukraine by securing their presence at Sevastopol until 2042. Of course the fleet itself is not that impressive. I visited Sevastopol last summer, and the array of ships on show is hardly representative of modern military technology and capabilities. It is, however, highly symbolic and the Russians like to make the most of it. During the course of the day each vessel takes its turn to make a tour out to sea while, in between, small tourist boats give curious visitors a glimpse of this famous Black Sea fleet sailing between the ships and the various submarines dotted around the port. Sevastopol itself is very much a Russian town complete with a Russian naval club and lots of sailors in big hats and baggy white pants drinking endless bottles of ice-cold vodka. The only language spoken is Russian. The whole time I was there I never heard a single word of Ukrainian. To speak Ukrainian there is alien.
In return Ukraine will be able to purchase natural gas from Russia at a 30 percent markdown from the market price. According to President Yanukovych, this deal will save Ukraine $40 billion by 2019. Cash-strapped Ukraine needed to pay less for Russian gas to help keep down its budget deficit in order to secure the resumption of a credit from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which is so vital to helping the nation’s battered economy recover from the global downturn. However, what will happen after the 10 years is up is still not clear, which is a consistent problem with Ukrainian negotiators. They only look to the short term without looking at long-term implications, meaning that gas deals frequently need to be renegotiated, which is more beneficial to Russia than Ukraine.
Not surprisingly, many of Ukraine’s oligarchs, who very conveniently happen to be part of Yanukovych’s Party of the Regions, will benefit from this deal. This includes Ukraine’s richest man, Rinat Akhmetov, and the man who allegedly backed Yanukovych’s election campaign, Dmytro Firtash. Both are involved in heavy industry, which consumes vast amounts of gas.
The next step is ratification by the Rada, where Yanukovych has a slight majority. However, given that many circles in Ukraine are in a state of outrage, including the opposition over the deal, which they have labeled as legally void, unconstitutional and treason against the country, there will be a fight to stop ratification, due to take place on April 27, including possibly blocking the Rada.
The 1997 agreement was recognized by all Ukrainian political forces, but this new controversial deal is set to divide the nation, and perhaps create civil strife -- the exact thing that Yanukovych was trying to avoid. It also does not help Yanukovych that his legitimacy is already being challenged in the Constitutional Court following amendments that were made to the law in order for him to be able to form a new coalition government shortly after his election. The result could be new snap parliamentary elections, which could turn the political tables in Ukraine against him and bring back the opposition to government, including, of course, the firebrand Yulia Tymoshenko.
