With Mr. Eroğlu’s reputation as a hard-liner many people have predicted that the last chance to reunify the island has disappeared and that Cyprus will remain divided forever while at the same time Turkey, whose membership aspirations are unavoidably attached to the resolution of the conflict, will never be able to make it into the EU. All in all, high drama in the Aegean.The Greek Cypriots have said it is a “bad” result, bearing in mind Mr. Eroğlu’s long-standing declared position against a federation and preference for the establishment of two independent states in Cyprus. As a senior Greek Cypriot official put it when I asked him about negotiating with Eroğlu, “We have no choice, no alternative; it is a step backwards because the man [Eroğlu] has no vision of reunification, but rather of separation, but under no circumstances will President Christofias walk away from the talks.” However, many in northern Cyprus and Turkey continue to believe that the Greek Cypriots do not really support a solution, anyway, so in that case then Eroğlu’s win is actually beneficial to them -- particularly if he enters the talks in an aggressive and bullish manner, attempting to make U-turns on areas where Talat had already reached agreement with Christofias.
In any case, the talks won’t collapse because Turkey will not allow them to. As long as Turkey continues to believe that a settlement is in Turkey’s broader interests, the process will continue because no Turkish Cypriot would be allowed to damage Turkey’s foreign policy objectives, and clearly Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu’s “zero problems with neighbors” policy also applies to Cyprus. Turkey wants to continue to be viewed as an increasingly powerful regional player and therefore needs to act accordingly in order to project the new image of Turkey to the world. This is why there will be continued pressure on Eroğlu from Ankara not to stray from the path that was opened up by the Annan plan, when Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots gained the moral and political high ground after, under then-Greek Cypriot leader Tassos Papadopoulos, the Greek Cypriots voted “no” to the plan. At that time Turkey was praised by the international community for its outstanding efforts towards a settlement, and ever since Ankara has endeavored to keep one step ahead of the Greek Cypriots’ approaches. Turkey under no circumstances wants to slip back to the bad old days with Ankara being labeled once again as the intransigent party. This would be no good for the new image of the country.
I don’t believe for one minute that Eroğlu wants to sit with Christofias and negotiate a settlement. Probably if it were up to him and his electorate the talks would stop and he would push instead for international recognition for northern Cyprus. However, he needs to work with Ankara and maintain the direction the talks have taken under Talat. He will also no doubt come under pressure from the UN, the EU and the US to have a pragmatic approach and not go outside of the parameters that have already been agreed. He has indicated that his negotiating technique will not be like Talat’s and that he will not be submissive. Eroğlu has always said that he would never accept a single sovereignty as agreed between Talat and Christofias, and he is unhappy about the cross-voting policy. It will therefore be interesting to see to what extent he will endeavor to move on these issues and what the reaction of the other players will be. Turkey “in principle” supported Talat’s acceptance of single sovereignty; will they stick to it or move back to a “the world must accept the realities on the island” approach? One also has to bear in mind that Eroğlu has been warned by Erdoğan to sit and behave appropriately; otherwise, his economic situation may suffer. With northern Cyprus dependent on financial aid from Ankara for its survival, Eroğlu simply cannot afford to make waves with the motherland.
So we can conclude the talks will go on and on, with each side wanting to keep the upper hand and neither side leaving the table, but whether these talks will actually produce anything constructive still very much remains to be seen.
Ankara will also expect the EU to do its part, too, by finally implementing the Direct Trade Regulation. If the regulation is passed by the European Parliament, the Greek Cypriots could only stop it by creating a blocking minority in the European Council. The Greek Cypriots will go to any lengths as they fear the adoption would mark the beginning of the end of a one-state solution. The EU has a clear choice -- upset Greek Cypriots but strengthen ties with Turkey by breathing new momentum into the membership talks, or do the opposite. For me the answer should be clear. However, given the shortsightedness of many in the EU it would not surprise me if the Greek Cypriots are successful and the regulation remains blocked.
