Russia has been very quick to endorse the new interim government, which has very strong ties to the Kremlin. The head of the government, Roza Otunbayeva, began her tenure by asking Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin for major economic assistance. Otunbayeva was educated at the elite Moscow State University and served as Soviet ambassador to UNESCO and Soviet ambassador to Malaysia prior to Kyrgyzstan becoming an independent country. The Kremlin has also offered support to the opposition, including finance. They have also increased their military presence in the country by sending 150 of their most elite paratroopers to their military base at Kant, near the capital of Bishkek -- one of five they have in the region.This new situation is almost a total reversal of the events of 2005 which saw the uprising and the deposing of the then-President Askar Akayev in March 2005 which was the third self-styled color revolution in the former Soviet Union in 16 months, following the Rose Revolution in Georgia in late 2003 and the Orange Revolution in Ukraine in late 2004 and early 2005. The West, and more particularly the US, cited these nations as beacons of democracy and examples for other former Soviet states to follow, and indeed as the Kyrgyz Tulip revolution was under way, the West was asking the question, “Who’s next?” Candidates included the likes of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova and Uzbekistan. As it turns out, none of these other countries have had such revolutions, although in certain cases, Moldova for example, political turmoil over the last 12 months has seen increased democracy and the country shift slightly towards closer integration with the West, although with new elections on the horizon this shift can hardly be guaranteed in the long term. Russia opposed the fast track approaches of both Georgia and Ukraine towards Euro-Atlantic integration and has spent much of the past five years endeavoring to reverse the trend -- particularly vis-a-vis NATO aspirations. Russia wants to see less, not more, NATO in its backyard.
Russia was keen to regain a strong influence in Kyrgyzstan because of its key geostrategic location, not least because it surrounds the most important piece of land in Central Asia, namely the Fergana Valley. Furthermore, whoever controls Kyrgyzstan has the opportunity to pressure a number of surrounding states including Kazakhstan, China, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Nevertheless, Kyrgyzstan will continue to host the US’s single remaining military base in Central Asia, with the new regime stating it will honor the commitments made by the ousted president. Washington has a transit center at Manas Airport, which has been the key logistical hub for Afghanistan since 2001. The Pentagon secured Manas shortly after its invasion of Afghanistan in October 2001; since then, more than 170,000 coalition personnel have passed through the base on their way in or out of Afghanistan. Manas has also been the transit point for some 5,000 tons of cargo, including spare parts and equipment, uniforms and various items to support personnel and mission needs. With all this US presence, the Russians (and the Chinese) have tended to view it as a hard and soft power threat -- something the Kremlin will now be keen to reverse.
However, at the same time, Kyrgyzstan is also a member of the post-Soviet Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), along with Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, and of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), with China, Russia and the three above-mentioned fellow Central Asian countries. However, neither the CSTO nor the SCO are a match for NATO.
Russia will continue to pursue this resurgent policy both through economic and political means, including using Russia’s key role as an energy supplier and transporter. It also has the added advance now of its “reset” with the US which has changed the geopolitics of the post-Soviet region. Russia’s resurgence also coincides with Obama’s moves to reduce the threat of nuclear weapons for which he requires ongoing Russian support, and a strong connection here is only to be expected. Obama can’t get what he wants without Russia. Obviously Russia’s strategy towards each country differs, and it is tailoring its resurgence with that in mind and, of course, there are some countries that are far more difficult because of their abundant energy resources, which make them more independent and less needy. How far Russia will realistically be able to go remains to be seen, but for sure Moscow will continue to take advantage of the West’s decreased focus on this region for some time to come.
