He is the longest-serving (28 years) ruler of the Arab Republic of Egypt and the chairman of the National Democratic Party (NDP). He has won many single-candidate elections. But this time he is facing a genuine high-profile contender, namely former UN nuclear chief Mohamed ElBaradei. ElBaradei has returned from Vienna, where he headed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) through the end of 2009, and is an acclaimed Nobel laureate. When he made his intention to run for president in 2011 known, many people were overjoyed to seize on to the opportunity to change the stagnant and exclusive political system of Egypt.This new and real opponent to Mr. Mubarak is running on a reformist platform and is not doing it in a timid way. He is campaigning on the streets and reaching out to diverse groups ranging from pious Muslim worshippers to the Coptic Christian intellectuals and popular and prominent artists of the country.
ElBaradei goes to the mosque but does not act like a Muslim populist. He portrays an image that is beyond narrow class interests and clique ideologies. He seems to be communicating with people from different walks of life and social echelons. What unites these diverse groups is their yearning for more liberties and fresh policies to change the stale atmosphere of Egypt’s authoritarian politics.
His campaign slogan resembles that of Barack Obama. He is on record stating that he is trying to build a consensus for change. In fact the organization founded to carry on his election campaign is called the National Association for Change. Change is a dreadful word for the forces of the status quo; however, with this institution he and his colleagues in the opposition intend to seek constitutional amendments and free elections as opposed to arranged ones.
The movement that ElBaradei leads wants to include all of those who want to change the old and traditional ways of authoritarian politics. Needless to say, his opponents in the establishment accuse him of being out of touch with the realities of the country after decades spent outside Egypt. This is true, but Egypt’s realities are not in tune with the modern world and democratic norms that are cherished today. So many people see in him the man who can wake the country up from its long political slumber.
ElBaradei is not only gathering middle class intellectuals and the opposing elite around him. He knows that without rallying the men and women on the streets he cannot bring to bear political pressure on the regime. Under pressure, the incumbent government will make mistakes. The biggest mistake of all will be trying to discourage him or scaring him off the electoral campaign. People identify with the underdog, for they themselves are underdogs.
Could ElBaradei’s effect be a fleeting one? It is hard to tell, but he chose a smooth and non-contentious campaign style in order to stay on the political stage. Rather than harsh rhetoric and bitter criticism of the regime and the ruling cadre, he is reiterating what has to be done to make things better for the benefit of all Egyptians.
ElBaradei’s supporters are making use of electronic communication methods, unlike the old ways of shouting anti-establishment slogans on street corners. They are trying to build networks in and among different social cohorts.
It is not only a matter of building a grassroots support group for the coming elections that constitutes the hardships that Mr. ElBaradei will face. There are stiff rules for presidential candidacy outside President Hosni Mubarak’s National Democratic Party.
Secondly, it is still unknown whether Mr. Mubarak (81 years of age now) will want to run for president next year after 28 years in office. If he does, despite recent operations he has undergone, he will do everything in his power to win and make his opponent fail. But if he declines the candidacy, Egypt will most likely have an internationally renowned president who is not a soldier. And that will go well with the spirit of the times.
