Although vote counting is still going on (almost completed), it seems that the biggest task for the winners will be forming a coalition government with the ability to rule the country.There are two main contenders, namely the State of Law (SOL) coalition of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, and former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, a secular Shia, who was appointed by the US to serve as the first post-war prime minister of Iraq and is the leader of the secular al-Iraqiya slate. Neither of them has yet been declared the head of the next government because the Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission’s counting is advancing rather slowly. Everyone thinks this is better than a hasty but mistaken result that may upset the calm anticipation of the day. Yet smaller political parties in Iraq complain about being marginalized from the electoral landscape with the March 7 parliamentary elections. They were unable to make the election threshold outlined in the recently amended election law. Hence, their representation in parliament will not be possible. The amendment to the election law has led to the dominance of bigger political blocs, shutting out smaller and scattered blocs of voters.
In such a divided country, no one should expect the making of a coalition government that soon. Forming a new coalition government could take months under the watchful eyes of the Americans to make sure that the Iraqis can run their own affairs and keep the much-needed peace before they begin to decrease their troop numbers starting in August.
According to partial official results as the counting continues, the SOL coalition is leading in seven provinces, and Iraqiya holds five. The difference in votes between Maliki and Allawi seems to be very small in some of the provinces. The Kurdish bloc and Iraqi National Alliance of Shiite leader Ahmed Chalabi each lead in three provinces, and they are also among the most favored vote getters. Currently, a coalition of primarily religious Shia parties, namely the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), limps behind both Maliki and Allawi’s blocs. It has so far won in three southern provinces and has performed poorly in the Sunni majority areas.
Two previously strong Shia religious groups, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), led by Ammar al-Hakim, and the Fadhila Party, whose stronghold was mostly in and around the southern province of Basra, have experienced major setbacks. Al-Iraqiya has managed to lead in the Sunni Arab-dominated provinces of Nineveh, Anbar, Diyala, Salahaddin and even the ethnically mixed Kirkuk province, made up of Kurds, Arabs and Turkmens, according to preliminary results. The reason for this is interpreted as the Sunnis’ fear of domination by religious Shia parties. This may be true. Most of the Sunnis have preferred secular politics as a means of uniting with secular elements within the Shia community to protect themselves from Shiite fundamentalism. This implies Iran’s influence in Iraq as well.
In the past Sunnis wanted to elect a Sunni to lead them. But now they have decided to come together with a secular Shia. This is a new strategy. And the incumbent prime minister, Mr. Maliki, is aware of it. He has in recent years tried to distance himself from parties known as strongly religious and sectarian and has attempted to present himself as more of a nationalist figure.
It is reported that at present 90 percent of the vote has been counted and that so far, the SOL is ahead with 2,259,853, while al-Iraqiya follows closely with 2,220,443. Although the gap is very narrow, seats will be distributed on a provincial basis. So it is not clear how these votes will translate into seats.
It is interesting to see how the West responds to the electoral success of Allawi’s coalition. The Americans especially hope to see strong nationalist and secular trends emerging to offset Iran’s influence in predominantly Shia Iraq. But if al-Iraqiya wins, the fractured character of Iraqi politics will render it harder to form a governing coalition. However, leaders of various blocs have already started talks to find areas of common ground. The process of forming a government is expected to last for weeks or even months.
