Kurds in Iraq, on the other hand, have a completely different agenda. They are anxiously waiting to see how the March 7 election results will shape the future of Kurdish politics in Iraq.Thus no matter how the situation evolves in Kurdish politics, we are witnessing historic moments for the future of the Kurds. A comparative analysis would show that the situation of Kurds in Turkey and Iraq is getting better every day. At least the Kurdish initiative would potentially establish bridges between Kurds and Turks. Yet the existence of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) as an armed group remains the biggest risk before any peace initiative. Furthermore, the PKK may escalate violence in upcoming months, which would further devastate the hope that the Kurdish initiative has established so far. Kurds in Iraq, however, may lose some of their influence in the central government because Muqtada al-Sadr’s election victory may negatively influence the Kurdish deputies’ role as the kingmakers. It appears that the Sadr movement is winning approximately 40 seats, equal to Kurdish power in the parliament. It means that the Kurds would not be an unavoidable cornerstone for politics in Baghdad. Further, al-Sdar’s rigid position toward the US occupation and Kirkuk could potentially weaken the Kurdish hand in Baghdad. For this reason I expect that Kurds would reduce their nationalist demands from the central government to present Kurds as a potential coalition partner for the Maliki government.
Further, the election results in Kirkuk indicate that the Kurds would not annex Kirkuk in the coming years -- that would create questions among Kurds on their political parties’ policies. Therefore the opposition Goran, or “change,” movement, may increase its significance in the coming years…
The impact of the election results in Iraq could wake the Kurds up from their long-lasting dream that the US and Europe have policies directed at the Kurds as a nation. Unlike the Kurdish nationalists and Turkish nationalists believe, neither the US nor the European countries have any policy toward the Kurds as a nation. The policies of the US and European countries is to provide for stability in the region because the stability of the region directly impacts their economy. Therefore the strategists and leaders in Europe and in the US are now trying to understand whether the election results could harm the stability of the region.
Given that Turkey has become one of the energy corridors of Europe, they especially want to maintain the stability of Turkey. With this perspective, Europe and the US want to end the PKK violence in the region. Turkish politicians and Kurdistan politicians are well aware of this, but the PKK leaders just do not get it. Therefore one can assume that the European countries and the US would tighten their policies against the PKK in the coming months and years until they remove the PKK as a destabilizing element in the region.
Kurdish expectations of the West include benefiting from the globalization process, being a prosperous society in the region and becoming one of the pillars of stability in the region. It is up to the Kurds now to determine whether they turn the globalization process into a big political opportunity for themselves or follow their petty dream to have their small nation-state. Analysts in the West argue that if Kurds in Iraq adjust their demands to be in tune with globalization and develop policies to cope with the process, then they would be the winners of globalization. If they follow their nationalist dreams, though, they would risk their future and have to confront new fights and battles in the coming years.
