When he first entered the White House, he was overflowing with enthusiasm and ideas on how to reverse the negative image of the US in the world. George W. Bush’s legacy, including a shambolic foreign policy, needed to be buried. Obama wanted to make the US popular again. To this end, he set himself a very ambitious set of goals, and not surprisingly, he is finding it increasingly difficult to deliver on most of them and make a clean break from the politics of his predecessor. Enthusiasm has turned into pessimism, and efforts to engage with Iran, China and Russia seem to have run somewhat adrift, while attempts to make progress in Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Middle East have not reaped the results he once thought they would. Climate change efforts have also been disappointing, and his grand gestures to the Muslim world have not shown any great results so far following the very impressive speech he made in Cairo. But, of course, words are always easier than actions. Looking on the bright side, however, views of the US around the world have improved considerably over the last 12 months, and Obama seems as popular as ever, even if his policies are somewhat disappointing.Obama’s efforts toward peace in the Middle East, which was one of his top priorities, have so far proved to be rather fruitless, and he is clearly having difficulty handling the Israelis. He set out to revive the Middle East peace process by demanding a freeze on Israeli settlement building last year, but this request was quickly brushed under the carpet by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Furthermore, the recent slap in the face the US received from Israel during the visit of US Vice President Joseph Biden -- announcing 1,600 new homes in the contested territory of East Jerusalem during his stay -- has heightened the perception that Israel is in the driver’s seat and that the foreign policy of the Obama administration is not going well. Additionally Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the Afghanistan-Pakistan problem are also causing Obama considerable headaches.
The relationship with Iran is in serious trouble. Obama spent his first year in office trying to open up to Iran, which has failed. While Obama downgraded the threat of an American attack and has been very careful not to propose rigid deadlines on the Iranians, it has so far not won him a change in policy from the Iranians. While it is now practically impossible to persuade Iran to do a U-turn on what they have already done, there are still no guarantees on the table that Tehran will not go to next level, either. The policies of Bush have left a very sour taste in the mouth of Iran. Unfortunately, the West has, over the years, allowed many opportunities to improve relations with Iran to pass by giving them all-or-nothing offers.
Sometimes a middle ground has to found in order to rebuild trust and understanding. Iran, more than many countries, has good reasons not to trust the West. Furthermore, there was a wasted opportunity last year when a huge chance for political change was opening, then partly closing, inside Iran. Affronted by Tehran on the nuclear front, Washington is now investing too much political capital in the pursuit of international sanctions that are unlikely to bring Iran to a negotiated renunciation of its nuclear program. Obama was also counting on Turkish support for this new round of sanctions, something far from guaranteed in light of recent events in Washington following the approval of the Armenian “genocide” resolution by the US House Foreign Relations Committee. Furthermore, the attention that Obama is giving to Iran also explains why he has perhaps not pushed the Chinese and the Russians further on issues such as human rights.
In Afghanistan Obama has all but given up on some of the initial objectives cited in the US’s initial engagement in the country -- democracy, for example. Rather he continues his surge policy while at the same time talking of troop withdrawals. The US also needs to assuage Pakistan’s security concerns in order to gain its full cooperation in the campaign against the irreconcilable elements of the Taliban, including being reassured concerning the role of India in Afghanistan. Therefore, Obama may try to further push the Kashmir peace plan of former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, which could go some way to stopping Pakistan’s obsession with India.
However, Obama is still only a year in, and let’s face it he was dealt a very difficult hand of cards in the first place. There is reason to be optimistic, as many other leaders also had tough first years in foreign policy terms. Bill Clinton is a good example, and he went on to achieve many foreign policy successes; therefore, Obama should not get too disheartened and should continue to uphold his “yes we can” motto.
